Broncos - Road Ahead

Okay, never mind my post about the Rockies yesterday. Apparently the Braves just aren't up to it. The Rockies don't have it in the bag just yet, but it looks like we won't need a white-knuckle finish to the regular season this time around.

Let's talk about the Broncos. So I had no idea what to think of them going into this season. My range of expectation for this year was between 4 and 9 wins. Realistically, I thought they would probably finish 7-9 or 8-8. But there were definitely folks out there who thought the Broncos were headed straight for 1-15 or 3-13, who are probaly the same folks still wearing their Jay Cutler jerseys and refusing to use their season tickets until Josh McDaniels gets fired.

And yet, after three weeks of play, the Broncos are 3-0. The defense has only allowed 16 points and Kyle Orton has yet to throw an interception. Clearly, things will not be as bad as some had thought. But now we have the reverse problem of people getting too excited and talking about playoff runs.

The problem with getting too excited about the Broncos right now is the fact that they haven't exactly faced the stiffest competition. If the Raiders and Browns aren't the two worst teams in the NFL, then they are two of the worst. And as many have pointed out, they would have lost to the Bengals in the opener if not for the "Immaculate Deflection".

As any Bronco fan knows, we will find out over the next 11 weeks exactly how good the 2009 Broncos are. Here's what they are up against:

Dallas Cowboys - who have a lot of talent
New England Patriots - who worked the Broncos over in a Monday night game in 2008
San Diego Chargers (2 games) - who the Broncos have had little success in the recent past
Baltimore Ravens - who look like the early-season favorite in the AFC
Pittsburgh Steelers - who are the defending Super Bowl champs
Washington Redskins - who have nothing, but this will be a road game for the Broncos
New York Giants - who were the Super Bowl champs two years ago
Kansas City Chiefs - who play in Arrowhead Stadium, where the Broncos often struggle
Indianapolis Colts - who have a quarterback that the Broncos can't beat

So, yeah. Other than the Redskins, there probably isn't a game where you would think that the Broncos should win.

But will they go 1-9? I don't think so. In fact, I think it would be very reasonable to see the Broncos split these 10 games - 5 wins, 5 losses.

Five of these games are at home, and I think it is not out of the question that the Broncos could win three. Dallas is erratic - the Broncos could win this Sunday. The Broncos have always played well against the Patriots, except for last year's debacle, so it wouldn't be surprising if they won that one either. The Steelers aren't looking quite as strong this year, so there is a possibility for an upset there. And they'll get the Giants at home Thanksgiving night, so the home field/holiday advantage might help them there. They won't win all those games, but they could win three.

As for the road games, I think the Broncos could win two: against the Redskins and Chiefs. They usually don't play well in Kansas City, but the Chiefs look to be pretty atrocious this year (they even lost to the Raiders).

So if the Broncos do indeed go 5-5 over that stretch, their record would then be 8-5, and two of their final three games would be home dates against the Raiders and Chiefs. So then they would be looking at potentially a 10-6 record and possibly a wildcard spot.

Before this season, my position was that the Broncos would not make the playoffs this year. And I'm not really changing that now. I'm just saying, if they only win half of the games over this rough stretch, they will be in a fabulous position.