Home Field Go Bye-bye?

No, I don't have anything else to write about besides the Broncos, even though the season is over. But I had a thought while reading the paper today. One of the columnists claimed that the Broncos have given up much of their home-field advantage since moving to Invesco Field from old Mile High nine years ago. The theory is that the Broncos have priced out many of the die-hard fans in favor of the wine-and-cheese crowd. Plus the old place was much noisier thanks to the old-school construction.

So I thought, I'd like to test that theory! Has the home field advantage truly taken a hit over the past decade?

I'll be comparing two eras - The Invesco Era (2001-2009) and the Old Mile High Era (1977-2000).

The Broncos averaged 5.9 wins per season at home during the Old Mile High Era (and that's including the strike-shortened 1982 season), and have so far averaged just 5.3 home victories per season during the Invesco Era.

During the Old Mile High Era, the Broncos finished either 7-1 or 8-0 at home a total of nine times. That's rougly once every three seasons. Since the Invesco Era began, the Broncos have finished with at least 7 home victories only once - during the 2005 season, when they were 8-0.

The Broncos also had some nice stretches at home in the Old Mile High Era. They went 24-0 at home between 1996 and 1998. And between 1983 and 1989, they went 45-11 at home, an 80% winning percentage. The best stretch in the Invesco Era was a 31-9 record at home between 2001 and 2005.

I figured it would probably be more accurate to look at what percentage of the Broncos' victories came on their home field - so that I can be sure I'm measuring home-field advantage without having it skewed by the fact that the Broncos were more successful overall in the eighties and nineties. It's an imperfect measurement, but I'm not writing a scientific paper. I'm just curious.

The Broncos won 48 games at home during the Invesco Era. They won 82 games overall during that period. So that calculates to 59% of their victories coming on their home field.

I then looked at every other 9 year period during the Old Mile High Era. I calculated 1977 to 1985, 1978 to 1986, 1979 to 1987, and so on. Thank goodness for computerized spreadsheet packages.

The Broncos exceeded the 59% Invesco Era mark in every nine year period during the Old Mile High Era, except one, which was also 59% (1977 to 1985). The Broncos also exceeded 48 home victories in each nine year period during the Old Mile High Era.

The high mark was 67% between 1987 and 1995. During that time, the Broncos finished 8-8 in 1988 and 1992, but still went a combined 13-3 at home during those years. The Broncos are also a very average 32-32 over the past four years, and yet were just a combined 17-15 at home.

So I think this amateurish analysis supports the theory that the home field advantage has diminished with the new stadium.

There is one interesting stat from the Invesco Era - Jake Plummer was 22-5 at home as the starting quarterback. But he wasn't good enough for Mikey Shanahan. Oh well.