Repeating History

We have heard throughout our lives that those who don't learn history are doomed to repeat it.

So who didn't learn history? Mike Shanahan.

Back in 1991, John Elway and the Broncos rebounded from a bad 1990 season and compiled a 12-4 regular season record. In their first playoff game, Elway engineered "The Drive II" to beat the Houston Oilers. Then the Broncos narrowly missed clinching their fourth Super Bowl appearance in six years, losing to Buffalo 10-7 in the AFC Championship game.

The outlook for 1992 must have seemed pretty good - two or three shrewd player transactions, and the Broncos would be right in the mix for the Super Bowl again. However, in the first round of the draft, Dan Reeves selected a quarterback, Tommy Maddox, to groom as Elway's successor. Never mind the fact that Elway was only 31 years old at the time and would go on to play 7 more NFL seasons. Reeves and Elway didn't like each other, and Reeves basically came out and shouted it from the rooftops. Elway didn't have his best season in 1991, but any outsider could see that quarterback was the one position where the Broncos were SET. So instead of making a pick to help shore up the defense or give Elway another offensive weapon, Reeves drafts his replacement.

And we all know how that story ended. The Broncos went into a mini-tailspin, missing the playoffs three out of the next four years, and losing their only playoff game in that stretch. Reeves was fired following the 1992 season. Maddox played just two seasons in Denver. Fortunately for Denver, Mike Shanahan revived the Broncos and Elway led the team back to the Super Bowl in 1997 and 1998.

But Shanahan did not learn from Reeves' mistake. In 2005, the Broncos rebounded from disappointing finishes to the 2003 and 2004 seasons to post a 13-3 regular season record and their first AFC West title in seven years. They were led by QB Jake Plummer, who had the best year of his career, compliling a passer rating of 90.2 and throwing 18 touchdowns against just 7 interceptions. Plummer was frequently mentioned as an MVP candidate during the season. The Broncos defeated the two-time defending champion New England Patriots in the playoffs and advanced to the AFC Championship game against the Pittsburgh Steelers. They lost to the Steelers, but the Broncos were finally Super Bowl contenders again.

In the 2006 NFL draft, Shanahan made numerous trades to move the Broncos up in the first round, where he selected Jay Cutler, a quarterback from Vanderbilt. People were excited about the pick, because everyone gets excited about quarterbacks. But was Jake Plummer not coming off his best season? And did he not lead the Broncos to the playoffs in each of his three seasons as the Broncos quarterback? Yes and yes. Yet Mike Shanahan drafted his replacement. Like Elway, Plummer was just 31 years old.

Plummer didn't play as well in 2006, and having Cutler looking over his shoulder probably contributed to that. He likely would have led the Broncos to a fourth consecutive playoff appearance, but was removed from the starting job with a 7-4 record and replaced by Cutler and his Elway-like arm. The Broncos went 2-3 the rest of the way with Cutler as the starter, and missed the playoffs.

How did that story end? Mike Shanahan was fired following the 2008 season. Jay Cutler was traded shortly thereafter. Jake Plummer decided to retire following the 2006 season and never played again. The Broncos record is 28-38 since Plummer was removed as the starter. This time there may not be a Shanahan waiting to restore them to glory.

People are wondering went wrong with the Broncos, who are perhaps the worst team in the NFL in 2010. I point to whenever it was - sometime between February and April of 2006 - that Shanahan decided that Plummer's best wasn't good enough. The franchise has been slowly eroding ever since that moment. And the current situation likely could have been avoided if Shanahan had learned from the mistake made by Dan Reeves 14 years earlier and put aside his differences with Jake Plummer and made moves to help him, rather than ruin his career.