Middle of the Pack

Another fantasy season has come and gone. And again, I finished middle-of-the-pack, fifth place out of ten. Overall, not a bad season. If you look at it from a rotisserie-style point of view, I was second overall in points scored.

So many decisions have to be made over the course of a fantasy season. And you can put a numerical value on everything, so it is very easy to second guess yourself. If I had only drafted this guy, or passed on this guy, or known to start this guy or bench that guy, or had added this guy before he got hot. There's no way to know.

But really, the pivotal week of my season was the first week of the playoffs, week 14. I'd earned the third seed on the basis of my 7-6 record. I lost 131-124, knocking me from title contention. The ball did not bounce my way, so to speak, in four key ways that week.

Number 1: Rob Gronkowski, my #2 scorer, was suspended for week 14 due to his late hit the previous week. I picked up Jason Witten to be my TE for that week, and he was solid, getting me 9 points. But if Gronkowski had been on the field, would he have been able to get me the additional 8 points I needed for the win? Considering he scored 17 or more in 7 of his 14 games on the season, there was at least a 50% chance he would have.

Number 2: The Thursday night matchup that week was Falcons v. Saints. I had three Falcons on my roster at that time: RB Devonta Freeman, K Matt Bryant, and WR Mohamed Sanu. I seriously considered starting all three. But since it was the first game of the week, I didn't want to hinder my chances of competing if the Falcons laid out a stinker. I started Freeman, who put up 15 points in his best performance since week 4. Win! Bryant put up a solid 10 points. Win! But I left Sanu on the bench instead of plugging him in as my flex for the week. He matched his best fantasy performance of the season, scoring 20, and I didn't get any of it. If he'd been in there, those 20 points would have given me a narrow win.

Number 3: Carson Wentz was my sterling free-agent pickup of the year at QB, and was injured in the third quarter of the Eagles' shootout win over the Rams. He put up 26 points and was my high scorer for the week. But what if he hadn't been hurt and had played the fourth quarter? Would he have put up my additional 8 points? Perhaps. This is perhaps my weakest what-if argument, as I was also starting the Eagles defense and benefited from a late fumble-return for a touchdown which netted me 7 points, and maybe that doesn't happen if Wentz is still in there. 

Number 4: I was left with three running backs to choose from for my flex play. Latavius Murray, Samaje Perine, and Dion Lewis. Lewis was playing on Monday night. I decided to bench Murray and Perine. It was a good choice as Murray only put up 3 and Perine only managed 8. I knew after Sunday's games that I needed 18 points from Lewis to get the win. And although he'd put up 17 and 18 in the past two weeks, I didn't feel great about the odds of him doing so on a Monday night in Miami. I scanned the other available players and noticed Dolphin RB Kenyan Drake. I'd never heard of him before, but he seemed to be a player on the rise. His last five weeks had produced totals of 15, 17, 2, 11, and 23 just the last week. I considered the boom-or-bust possibilities of handing my playoff life to an anonymous running back. The Dolphins were at home, and the Patriots defense hadn't been great all season. But the projections seemed to be optimistic for Patriot running backs as Gronkowski was not going to be playing. I stayed with Lewis. He got me 11 and no more. Drake rushed for 114 yards and caught 5 passes for 79 yards in Miami's victory. A total of 23 fantasy points.

So I lost and went into the consolation bracket. If I had advanced to the semifinal round, I would have comfortably beaten the #2 seed in week 15. And in the just-concluded week 16, I put up 114 points. The team that won the championship put up 115, but you never know. I may have put more effort into my lineup if I was in title contention. My point is, I very well could have won the title if I had gone the other way on the Lewis vs. Drake decision.

My top four scorers on the season at the "flex" positions of RB/WR/TE were all players I drafted:

Round 4, #36 overall: Larry Fitzgerald, #11 in the league with 241 points

Round 3, #25 overall: Rob Gronkowski, #17 in the league with 221 points

Round 6, #56 overall: Carlos Hyde, #24 in the league with 198 points

Round 5, #45 overall: Golden Tate, #29 in the league with 189 points

So not a bad draft rounds three through six - all those guys were on my roster the entire season and all performed above their draft position. I can't complain.

My draft strategy was "autopick" partially due to circumstances on draft day but also the computer generally does a better job than me. I only picked a couple players manually. 

 

One of those "manual" picks was WR Odell Beckham, at #5 overall. He played only four games on the season due to injury. It's wrong to ponder on the what ifs, but RB LeSean McCoy was #6 overall. He finished the year with 247 points.

Instead, my first RB selection was Devonta Freeman at #16 overall. He finished as the #46 flex player in the league with 164 points, partially due to scoring zero points in three weeks due to injury. Even after adjusting for that factor, he was a little bit of a disappointment, only tallying double digits in three of the last 11 weeks of the season. 

So I didn't get a lot out of my top two picks. 

I wound up with nothing of value in rounds 7 through 10, and my draft strategy was to not select a QB, K, or DEF until the last three rounds because good value can always be found on the free agent market unless you just have your heart set on Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers.

I picked up QB Jameis Winston in round 11, and he was my starter for five of the first weeks of the season, until I went to Carson Wentz. He averaged 22 points a game for the seven weeks he was my starter, and likely would have finished the season as the top-scoring fantasy QB if not for his week 14 injury

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When the season is over, and you don't end up on top, fantasy football seems like a fantastic waste of time. But when you're in the midst, it's a fun diversion, and I'll probably be back to play again next year.