Home Field Go Bye-bye?

No, I don't have anything else to write about besides the Broncos, even though the season is over. But I had a thought while reading the paper today. One of the columnists claimed that the Broncos have given up much of their home-field advantage since moving to Invesco Field from old Mile High nine years ago. The theory is that the Broncos have priced out many of the die-hard fans in favor of the wine-and-cheese crowd. Plus the old place was much noisier thanks to the old-school construction.

So I thought, I'd like to test that theory! Has the home field advantage truly taken a hit over the past decade?

I'll be comparing two eras - The Invesco Era (2001-2009) and the Old Mile High Era (1977-2000).

The Broncos averaged 5.9 wins per season at home during the Old Mile High Era (and that's including the strike-shortened 1982 season), and have so far averaged just 5.3 home victories per season during the Invesco Era.

During the Old Mile High Era, the Broncos finished either 7-1 or 8-0 at home a total of nine times. That's rougly once every three seasons. Since the Invesco Era began, the Broncos have finished with at least 7 home victories only once - during the 2005 season, when they were 8-0.

The Broncos also had some nice stretches at home in the Old Mile High Era. They went 24-0 at home between 1996 and 1998. And between 1983 and 1989, they went 45-11 at home, an 80% winning percentage. The best stretch in the Invesco Era was a 31-9 record at home between 2001 and 2005.

I figured it would probably be more accurate to look at what percentage of the Broncos' victories came on their home field - so that I can be sure I'm measuring home-field advantage without having it skewed by the fact that the Broncos were more successful overall in the eighties and nineties. It's an imperfect measurement, but I'm not writing a scientific paper. I'm just curious.

The Broncos won 48 games at home during the Invesco Era. They won 82 games overall during that period. So that calculates to 59% of their victories coming on their home field.

I then looked at every other 9 year period during the Old Mile High Era. I calculated 1977 to 1985, 1978 to 1986, 1979 to 1987, and so on. Thank goodness for computerized spreadsheet packages.

The Broncos exceeded the 59% Invesco Era mark in every nine year period during the Old Mile High Era, except one, which was also 59% (1977 to 1985). The Broncos also exceeded 48 home victories in each nine year period during the Old Mile High Era.

The high mark was 67% between 1987 and 1995. During that time, the Broncos finished 8-8 in 1988 and 1992, but still went a combined 13-3 at home during those years. The Broncos are also a very average 32-32 over the past four years, and yet were just a combined 17-15 at home.

So I think this amateurish analysis supports the theory that the home field advantage has diminished with the new stadium.

There is one interesting stat from the Invesco Era - Jake Plummer was 22-5 at home as the starting quarterback. But he wasn't good enough for Mikey Shanahan. Oh well.

Super Long Time

So I'm totally into the NFL playoffs! I watched the second half of NY Jets/Cincinnati and the whole two minutes of overtime between Green Bay & Arizona last weekend. This weekend I listened to some of Arizona/New Orleans on the radio, and had Indy/Baltimore on the TV although I wasn't paying attention. And then I watched the last two minutes of San Diego/NY Jets. So maybe I'm not really into it this year.

What is interesting about the coming weekend of AFC and NFC Championship games is that the games involve three teams who haven't been seen in a Super Bowl anytime in the last three decades. At least one starved fan base (winner of New Orleans-Minnesota) and maybe two (if Jets win against Indy) will be rewarded.

The New Orleans Saints have never been to the Super Bowl in their 40+ years of existence. The Minnesota Vikings have not been since 1977. And the Jets have not appeared in the Super Bowl since 1969. I have updated my list of NFL teams and how long it has been since their last Super Bowl appearance and included it below.


NEVER BEEN
Houston Texans
Jacksonville Jaguars
Cleveland Browns
Detroit Lions - never made it, never will
New Orleans Saints

SURE HAS BEEN A LONG TIME
New York Jets (40 years - will go to 41 if they lose on Sunday)
Kansas City Chiefs (40 years) - ha ha
Minnesota Vikings (32 years - will go to 33 if they lose on Sunday)
Miami Dolphis (25 years)
Cincinnati Bengals (21 years)

STARTING TO GET IMPATIENT
Washington Redskins (18 years)- will Mikey Shanahan fix this?
Buffalo Bills (16 years)
San Diego Chargers (15 years)- choked away their chance this year
San Francisco 49ers (15 years)- Joe? Steve? Where are you?
Dallas Cowboys (14 years)- this is okay by me
Green Bay Packers (12 years)
Denver Broncos (11 years)- Yikes
Atlanta Falcons (11 years)
Tennessee Titans (10 years)

NO CAUSE FOR COMPLAINT
Baltimore Ravens (9 years)
St. Louis Rams (8 years)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7 years)
Oakland Raiders (7 years)- and what a hard 7 years it's been
Carolina Panthers (6 years)
Philadelphia Eagles (5 years)
Seattle Seahawks (4 years)
Chicago Bears (3 years)- Jay Cutler sucks!
Indianapolis Colts (2 years, will go to 3 if they lose on Sunday)
New York Giants (2 years)
New England Patriots (2 years)- Blah
Pittsburgh Steelers (1 year)
Arizona Cardinals (1 year)

Mediocre

Well, the Broncos finished their year yesterday by getting blown away at home by one of the worst teams in the NFL, the KC Chiefs. They finished the year 8-8, which is precisely the record I expected before their unexpected 6-0 start.

8-8 is a very average record. It's 50 percent. It's neither a winning record nor a losing record.

Being so mediocre is one thing, but the Broncos have taken it to a whole new level. A few stats for your consumption: the Broncos were 4-4 at home, and 4-4 on the road. They were 6-6 against AFC teams, and 2-2 against NFC teams. They were 3-3 against teams in their division, the AFC West. They were 1-1 against San Diego, 1-1 against Oakland, and 1-1 against Kansas City. They were 2-2 against the AFC Central. Over the past four seasons of not making the playoffs, they are 32-32.

Now that's mediocre!

BTW - The last time the Broncos went four straight seasons without making the playoffs was 1976.