Denver Broncos 2019 Recap

I'm reposting my Broncos preseason outlook here with my postseason comments. I think I was pretty spot-on, if I do say so myself.

The two biggest changes in 2019 are new head coach Vic Fangio and new quarterback Joe Flacco. Fangio has received good reviews thus far, but he's still unproven as a head coach. Flacco has a nice resume, but he's also 34 years old. There were reasons to be concerned about the F&F Connection heading into this year, and certainly Fangio had some rough patches although the strong finish ended talk of a one-and-done season. Flacco's Bronco career ended halfway through his first season due to injury and mediocre performance.

Otherwise, this is more or less the same team that went 6-10 last year. They've added some veteran help in the secondary, so the defense figures to continue to be solid. They succeeded in keeping the Broncos in most games, but often failed to protect late leads. Most of the question marks are on the offensive side. Will the offensive line perform any better? Mmmmm... Will any tight ends be able to stay on the field? Actually, yes. Is Emmanuel Sanders healthy? Yes, but wanted out as soon as it was apparent this bunch was not headed to the playoffs. How will RB Phillip Lindsay perform coming off a Pro Bowl rookie season? Followed up with a second consecutive 1,000 yard season. Will any of their young talent, such as Royce Freeman, Noah Fant, or Courtland Sutton, break through to stardom? Clearly, Sutton was the breakout star this year (72 catches for 1,112 yards) and Fant had some big plays which hinted of great things yet to come.

My guess is that we'll be disappointed in the answers to some of those questions. I will say the answers were more positive than negative. However, if Fangio's leadership and Flacco's experience make a difference, we could be in for a nice surprise. It's not out of the question that we could see their record flip to 10-6 in 2019. And it wasn't - this was a 7-9 team which failed to hold fourth quarter leads in four different games. We could be prepping for a wildcard round trip to Foxborough this weekend if they had held on to a couple of those.

And really, who are the insurmountable threats in the AFC, beyond the Chiefs and the Patriots? As it turns out, the Ravens. Are you really terrified of anyone else? The Ravens. The new-look Jets? Nope. The Titans or Texans? Both made the playoffs this year, but the Broncos shut out the Titans and blew the doors off the Texans in their own building. The Luck-less Colts? Not really, although this was one of those games the Broncos gave away. The Steelers and old man Roethlisberger? Nah. The San Diego Los Angeles Trash Cans? Broncos swept them this year. Some are expecting the Browns to make a leap forward, but are you sure about that? I was pretty sure they were nothing to worry about, and I was correct. Another losing season in the books for Cleveland!

Sure, a couple of really good teams will emerge as the season goes along, but we don't know who those are just yet. The Ravens. So why wouldn't you give the Broncos a shot at a wildcard spot? If not for the slow start, they would have been in the mix until the final weekend.

If they can get to Thanksgiving at 6-5, they're definitely in the mix with three home dates in December. They were 3-8 at Thanksgiving and that's why they weren't in the mix. But if Flacco gets off to a rough start, people are going to get impatient really quick and the Broncos could be drafting in the top 10 next year. Yup - folks were ready for Drew Lock before we even made it to Halloween.

Honestly, I think it seems like this year will be a modest improvement to 8-8. It was a modest improvement to 7-9. They'll look really good at times but will also lose some that they shouldn't, and will likely fall short of the playoffs in what looks to be a tough AFC West. Times when they looked really good: when they led playoff teams Minnesota and Houston at halftime by scores of 20-0 and 31-3. Times when they lost those they shouldn't: losing that same game to Minny, and losing games in the final minute to the Bears, Jaguars, and Colts. The AFC West turned out to be underwhelming outside of the Chiefs. The Broncos finished second.

Overall, it's encouraging to head into the offseason having gone 4-1 in December and not having head coach or quarterback at the top of your priorities. After two consecutive solid drafts, they need to keep bringing in good players regardless of  position. Although I think the offensive line should be among their draft priorities - the free agency route hasn't worked out so well...

Better Lucky Than Good

Heading into this year's fantasy football season, I had neither the time or inclination to put much effort into my fantasy draft. I spent maybe 15 minutes skimming a couple of articles and made the decision to stick closely to the ESPN player rankings. It's usually hard for me to get excited about football in August, and the fact that I was coming off of a 4-9 season a year ago added to my indifference.

And my draft, despite the shift in strategy, wasn't much better than previous years. Devonta Freeman (2nd round), George Kittle (3rd round), T.Y. Hilton (4th round), and Alshon Jeffrey (5th round) have all been underwhelming considering their draft positions. A.J. Green (6th round) and David Njoku (8th round) have lost most of their seasons to injury.

However, two really good draft picks and two really good waiver pickups have made up the difference. I had the #2 overall pick in the draft and on a hunch took Christian McCaffrey (ranked #3) over Ezekiel Elliott. McCaffrey is the top scoring fantasy player to date, and has outscored Elliott by a wide margin. In the ninth round, I picked up Russell Wilson as my quarterback. He's produced the second most points for quarterbacks, and is ranked fifth among all players. Not bad value.

Back in September, I picked up undrafted receivers John Brown and D.J. Chark within a few days of each other. They've outpaced my drafted receivers. Chark has accumulated the sixth most points among wide receivers, and Brown is ranked #13.

The result? I'm 10-1 and riding a nine-game winning streak. The one game I lost was by a single point, when McCaffrey had his worst game of the season in week 2. I clinched the top overall seed in the playoffs and so now I have the next three weeks with nothing to play for. It's so bizarre. I expect that every week will be the one where it finally comes to an end, but I just keep winning.

Case-in-point: last week. In our league, we only have four bench spots. I had Wilson, my QB, on a bye, and three others out with injury (Kittle, Hilton, Freeman). Plus I had Emmanuel Sanders who was questionable, but playing in the Sunday afternoon time slot. I already had three WRs filling the active spots and playing in the early slate of games, so I couldn't wait to see if he was going to play. I  I didn't want to drop any of these players, so I decided to just play the week with a depleted lineup and an empty TE slot. I figured I would lose and just sacrifice the game for the long-term good of my season.

Nope. I had my highest point total since week 1, racking up 153 points behind 34 from Brown, 30 from Chark, 30 from McCaffrey, and 18 from Jamison Crowder (a more recent free agent pickup), and winning comfortably.

I can't explain it. I've just been lucky all season. Even though I have the most points scored overall in the league, I also have the fewest points against, which is something I have absolutely no control over. For example: my worst week of the season was week 7 (McCaffrey was on a bye). I only managed 85 points. But the opponent had a bad week (59) so I got the win anyways.

In real football, when a team clinches early, the concern is that they will lose their momentum or edge. I don't know if that applies in fantasy football. For me, only two weeks matter for the rest of the season: week 15 and 16. What do I do? Continue to make roster moves? Go with the guys that got me here? Pray that no one suffers a season-ending injury? Don't write a blog post about my success prematurely?

Or maybe, I'll just enjoy it, because who knows when this will ever happen again?

Middle of the Pack

Another fantasy season has come and gone. And again, I finished middle-of-the-pack, fifth place out of ten. Overall, not a bad season. If you look at it from a rotisserie-style point of view, I was second overall in points scored.

So many decisions have to be made over the course of a fantasy season. And you can put a numerical value on everything, so it is very easy to second guess yourself. If I had only drafted this guy, or passed on this guy, or known to start this guy or bench that guy, or had added this guy before he got hot. There's no way to know.

But really, the pivotal week of my season was the first week of the playoffs, week 14. I'd earned the third seed on the basis of my 7-6 record. I lost 131-124, knocking me from title contention. The ball did not bounce my way, so to speak, in four key ways that week.

Number 1: Rob Gronkowski, my #2 scorer, was suspended for week 14 due to his late hit the previous week. I picked up Jason Witten to be my TE for that week, and he was solid, getting me 9 points. But if Gronkowski had been on the field, would he have been able to get me the additional 8 points I needed for the win? Considering he scored 17 or more in 7 of his 14 games on the season, there was at least a 50% chance he would have.

Number 2: The Thursday night matchup that week was Falcons v. Saints. I had three Falcons on my roster at that time: RB Devonta Freeman, K Matt Bryant, and WR Mohamed Sanu. I seriously considered starting all three. But since it was the first game of the week, I didn't want to hinder my chances of competing if the Falcons laid out a stinker. I started Freeman, who put up 15 points in his best performance since week 4. Win! Bryant put up a solid 10 points. Win! But I left Sanu on the bench instead of plugging him in as my flex for the week. He matched his best fantasy performance of the season, scoring 20, and I didn't get any of it. If he'd been in there, those 20 points would have given me a narrow win.

Number 3: Carson Wentz was my sterling free-agent pickup of the year at QB, and was injured in the third quarter of the Eagles' shootout win over the Rams. He put up 26 points and was my high scorer for the week. But what if he hadn't been hurt and had played the fourth quarter? Would he have put up my additional 8 points? Perhaps. This is perhaps my weakest what-if argument, as I was also starting the Eagles defense and benefited from a late fumble-return for a touchdown which netted me 7 points, and maybe that doesn't happen if Wentz is still in there. 

Number 4: I was left with three running backs to choose from for my flex play. Latavius Murray, Samaje Perine, and Dion Lewis. Lewis was playing on Monday night. I decided to bench Murray and Perine. It was a good choice as Murray only put up 3 and Perine only managed 8. I knew after Sunday's games that I needed 18 points from Lewis to get the win. And although he'd put up 17 and 18 in the past two weeks, I didn't feel great about the odds of him doing so on a Monday night in Miami. I scanned the other available players and noticed Dolphin RB Kenyan Drake. I'd never heard of him before, but he seemed to be a player on the rise. His last five weeks had produced totals of 15, 17, 2, 11, and 23 just the last week. I considered the boom-or-bust possibilities of handing my playoff life to an anonymous running back. The Dolphins were at home, and the Patriots defense hadn't been great all season. But the projections seemed to be optimistic for Patriot running backs as Gronkowski was not going to be playing. I stayed with Lewis. He got me 11 and no more. Drake rushed for 114 yards and caught 5 passes for 79 yards in Miami's victory. A total of 23 fantasy points.

So I lost and went into the consolation bracket. If I had advanced to the semifinal round, I would have comfortably beaten the #2 seed in week 15. And in the just-concluded week 16, I put up 114 points. The team that won the championship put up 115, but you never know. I may have put more effort into my lineup if I was in title contention. My point is, I very well could have won the title if I had gone the other way on the Lewis vs. Drake decision.

My top four scorers on the season at the "flex" positions of RB/WR/TE were all players I drafted:

Round 4, #36 overall: Larry Fitzgerald, #11 in the league with 241 points

Round 3, #25 overall: Rob Gronkowski, #17 in the league with 221 points

Round 6, #56 overall: Carlos Hyde, #24 in the league with 198 points

Round 5, #45 overall: Golden Tate, #29 in the league with 189 points

So not a bad draft rounds three through six - all those guys were on my roster the entire season and all performed above their draft position. I can't complain.

My draft strategy was "autopick" partially due to circumstances on draft day but also the computer generally does a better job than me. I only picked a couple players manually. 

 

One of those "manual" picks was WR Odell Beckham, at #5 overall. He played only four games on the season due to injury. It's wrong to ponder on the what ifs, but RB LeSean McCoy was #6 overall. He finished the year with 247 points.

Instead, my first RB selection was Devonta Freeman at #16 overall. He finished as the #46 flex player in the league with 164 points, partially due to scoring zero points in three weeks due to injury. Even after adjusting for that factor, he was a little bit of a disappointment, only tallying double digits in three of the last 11 weeks of the season. 

So I didn't get a lot out of my top two picks. 

I wound up with nothing of value in rounds 7 through 10, and my draft strategy was to not select a QB, K, or DEF until the last three rounds because good value can always be found on the free agent market unless you just have your heart set on Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers.

I picked up QB Jameis Winston in round 11, and he was my starter for five of the first weeks of the season, until I went to Carson Wentz. He averaged 22 points a game for the seven weeks he was my starter, and likely would have finished the season as the top-scoring fantasy QB if not for his week 14 injury

.

When the season is over, and you don't end up on top, fantasy football seems like a fantastic waste of time. But when you're in the midst, it's a fun diversion, and I'll probably be back to play again next year.

Not My Fantasy

My quest for a fantasy football championship died last night, with a humbling 141-61 defeat in the playoff semifinals. The odds were against me, but I was hoping for a couple of miraculous 30-point efforts to help me pull off an upset.

Instead, what I got was my lowest point total of the season with 61 (previous low: 85). That's an average of less than 7 points per player. My high point man was Steelers TE Ladarius Green (12), who I picked up off waivers a couple of weeks ago. The three wide receivers I left on the bench outscored the three I had in my lineup by a total of 39-14, although that wouldn't have made a difference in the outcome. I get a chance next week to still secure third place, which would be quite an accomplishment considering my total points rank for the season is seventh out of eight teams.

You might be thinking, I don't care to hear about your stupid fantasy football team. But you aren't thinking that because you aren't reading this post. If a tree falls down in the forest and no one is there, does it still make a sound?

As usual, I didn't catch many breaks in the draft. I had the #7 pick in the first round and opted to use it on Texans WR DeAndre Hopkins, who had 111 catches a year ago with an unstable quarterback situation. Maybe I figured with Brock Osweiler coming on board this season in Houston, it could only improve the situation. Instead, I was burned by Brock, as Hopkins was a pretty disappointing fantasy player this year, only topping 20 points once (in week 2) in our PPR league. The next two players selected in our draft? David Johnson went #8 and will wind up as the top scoring fantasy player this season. Le'Veon Bell went #9 and despite missing the first three games is currently #6 in terms of total points.

I went for Rob Gronkowski with the #10 pick, thinking that being able to pencil in 15 points weekly at tight end would be a good move. I can't really fault myself for that logic, but he was only healthy for about four games this year. It hasn't affected the Patriots, who are inexplicably still the best team in the NFL even without him, but it sure didn't help my fantasy team.

In the third round I went for Chargers WR Keenan Allen at #23 overall. He was lost for the season with an injury in Week 1. Ouch. Then I went for Buccaneer Doug Martin as my first RB at #26. He was injured and missed about six games in a row and somewhere along the line I dumped him. If only I had instead snagged RB LeSean McCoy who went #30 or WR Mike Evans who went #32. Both players averaged 18+ fantasy points per week this year.

 

I took Raiders WR Amari Cooper in the fifth round. He was pretty good early on, but hasn't done much lately. I shouldn't be too frustrated with him - he was supposed to be my WR3. For some reason I decided to take Russell Wilson in the sixth round, as the fourth quarterback taken in our draft. Instead, I dumped him midway through the season. Why didn't I grab Drew Brees, who was the fifth quarterback taken in our draft, #50 overall. He's currently #2 among quarterbacks in fantasy points behind only Aaron Rodgers. Wilson is #17.

So you get the picutre. It's easy to draft after the season when you know how everything turned out. My point is that I didn't catch many breaks. Three of my top four picks made basically irrelevant by injuries, and the other never developed any chemistry with the new quarterback.

So I slogged through to the end with waiver pickups such as Jay Ajayi, Marcus Mariota, Martellus Bennett, Theo Riddick and Jamison Crowder doing just enough to help me get the #3 seed for the playoffs. It just wasn't enough to make me a viable championship contender.

Better luck next year, as they say.

Warning! This Post Will Probably Bore You.

My fantasy football season came to an end Monday night. All I needed was for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and their fabulous defense to hold Carolina Panthers receiver Steve Smith to a modest number of catches. Instead, Smith caught 9 passes for 117 yards and a touchdown, which gave my opponent enough points to beat me. With the loss, my record dropped to 7-7 and I ended up in a tie for the final playoff spot, which I lost due to a tiebreaker of total points throughout the season.

Much like the Denver Broncos, I started off the season like a house of fire. I won my first game by a margin of 34 points. I won my second game by scoring a total of 206 points, which was the highest single-game total in my league this season. And then I squeaked out a victory in game three as Chargers K Nate Kaeding scored 13 points for me in the Monday night game – pretty much exactly what I needed. At 3-0, I had high hopes for the season. But then my team went in the tank, losing 6 of 8 games and leaving me on the bubble for the playoffs. I rebounded with consecutive victories in weeks 12 &13, but then fell short last week.

Where did I go wrong?

I’ve played fantasy football for several seasons – and I pretty much know what to do and what not to do. And yet, in the draft, I didn’t stick to it 100 percent.

For instance, I knew that picking a quarterback anywhere in the first half of the draft was a bad idea. And yet, there I was, picking Carson Palmer in the 5th round. How did that turn out? The Bengals were awful, Palmer was hurt, and he totaled only 91 points of fantasy production. I cut him midseason.

My quarterback for most of the season was Eli Manning (392 points). And where did I pick him up? That’s right – in the 16th round, one of the very last players picked. I would have been better off spending my 5th round pick on another position.

Actually, my initial plan going into the draft was to look for Broncos QB Jay Cutler, since I knew he was a bit underrated. And he was available for me as late as the 10th round. So did I take him? Nope, I passed on Cutler and what would have been a 507-point season in order to take RB Fred Taylor (86 points).

The second place I messed up was in running back depth. Running back is the most valuable fantasy position, especially if you can snag one who gets yards both rushing and receiving. I started off okay, using my first round pick on Marion Barber (223 points) instead of Joseph Addai (127 points). But then I proceeded to ignore the position for the next six rounds.

It was my plan – sort of. I thought receivers were more valuable early in the draft and filled out my three starting positions in rounds 2, 3, and 4 with Reggie Wayne (191 points), Andre Johnson (243 points), and Brandon Marshall (220 points). That was my strategy, and I stuck to it, so I can’t really fault myself. But in the process, I passed up that second running back. I could have picked up Maurice Jones-Drew (228 points), Clinton Portis (212 points), or Reggie Bush (170 points).

Instead of turning my focus back to running back after the 4th round, I picked Palmer in the 5th round and grabbed TE Kellen Winslow in the 6th. In the process, I passed up Atlanta Falcons RB Michael Turner (215 points), who I had my eye on. I didn’t even get the right TE, either. Winslow totaled 103 points this year – the next player selected was Chiefs TE Tony Gonzalez (208 points).

I picked up Calvin Johnson (216) as a fourth receiver in the 7th round, with the idea I could trade one of my four receivers once the bye weeks were done. But that didn't work out.

And so I was left to pick Edgerrin James as my second RB in the 8th round. He was adequate until he inexplicably stopped playing midway through the season and wound up with only 75 points all year. And who was picked next? Jets RB Thomas Jones, who racked up 245 points this year.

I also decided to take a chance on a rookie RB later in the draft in hopes I might find a steal. I took Steelers RB Rashard Mendenhall. He totaled just 10 points before suffering a season-ending injury.

So I struggled with depth at running back all season, using free agent pickups Mewelde Moore, LeRon McClain, and Derrick Ward to cover my draft deficiencies. They did okay, but not having adequate RB depth probably cost me at least two wins this season, including the final week, when Marion Barber was out with an injury and my starting backfield was Ward and Moore.

I can look back at any number of games this past year as the one that cost me the playoffs – maybe in week 8 when I lost by less than a field goal – thanks in part to Edgerrin James and his 0.7 output that week. Or what about in week 10, when I had my second highest single-game point total of the year with 160 points, but still lost. This was partly attributable to my starting Calvin Johnson instead of Brandon Marshall.

So I’ll try again next year and maybe get this fantasy football thing right.

Fantasy Football: It Messes With Your Head

I'll keep this brief, because I realize that there is possibly nothing more boring than reading about someone's fantasy football exploits. I'm not into FF very deep this season - I'm only playing in one league. And I doubt I've spent more than 30 minutes a week on it this year, which is probably too much. Like the Denver Broncos, I started out hot, winning my first three. But I've been in a bit of a slide since then and currently stand at 5-5.

I lost this last week by some ridiculously small margin - 2.8 points or something. And I should have won - if I had not thought about it too hard. You see, part of my strategy this year was to go heavy on receivers - I picked Reggie Wayne, Andre Johnson, and Brandon Marshall with three of my first four picks. And then I added Calvin Johnson later on. You play three receivers in my league - so having four recievers works out good if one of them has a bye - but otherwise I'm always worried about sitting the wrong guy on the bench.

Brandon Marshall started out the year strong but has slowed down a bit since. So with three other receivers playing well, I decided to sit him on the bench this past week. So he goes out and has a big game, outscoring the two Johnsons for the week. If I would have played him, I would have won! So frustrating.

But more frustrating was my own reaction when watching the Broncos-Browns game on Thursday night. Marshall caught the winning TD pass to complete a dramatic fourth-quarter comeback for the Broncos. And I remember being a little ticked off that it was Marshall who was the recipient of the TD pass. He made my decision to sit him on the bench look bad! How dare he! Wait a minute. . . the Broncos are my team - why am I not way more excited that they just took the lead with a minute to go?

Similarly, the Broncos fell behind in this game 17-7. I should have been really mad that the Broncos were playing poorly yet again. Yet this bad news was softened a bit by the fact that both Cleveland touchdowns had been scored by Kellen Winslow. You guessed it - Winslow is the TE on my fantasy team.

In conclusion, don't play this game - it really screws up your rooting interests.

I'll probably keep playing, though, because everyone is doing it.