There are several approaches the Broncos can take to hiring a new head coach. I've taken the liberty of outlining them.
The Big Name
Included in this category are ex-Steelers coach Bill Cowher, ex-Buccaneers coach Jon Gruden, ex-Colts coach Tony Dungy, ex-Ravens coach Brian Billick. All won Super Bowls with their former clubs, all are now working in television, and all have been out of coaching for at least two years. All are rumored as possibilities for every head coaching job that opens up.
A lot of people around here are clamoring for Gruden or Cowher to coach the Broncos. I don't see the Broncos being that interested in any of these candidates and vice versa. Mainly because they would require what Pat Bowlen can't give at this point - a lot of money and a lot of power.
And frankly, I'm glad. The idea of bringing in one of these guys to coach the Broncos reminds me of the move the Colorado Rockies made in 1999 when they brought in Jim Leyland as manager. He lasted one year with poor results as he technically didn't want to be here. Cowher, Gruden, and Dungy are all East Coast guys who probably wouldn't appreciate what is unique about Colorado and the Broncos and would be in it primarily for the money and/or their ego.
It's just as well for fans not to get their hopes up on anyone from this group. If these guys really wanted to be coaching, they already would be.
The College Guy
Names that have already come up from this category are Air Force coach Troy Calhoun, Stanford coach Jim Harbaugh, and former Florida coach Urban Meyer.
Calhoun was the front runner for about a day after McDaniels was fired, as he is a former Broncos assistant, but extended his contract with Air Force, so he's out of the running. Tebowmaniacs have thrown out Urban Meyer's name. The chances of that happening are slim and none.
The name that should be brought up is BYU coach Bronco Mendenhall. For obvious reasons.
I don't know much about the coaching aptitude of Jim Harbaugh, but the last time the Denver Broncos were in as bad shape as they are now was 1971. Back then, they hired their coach away from Stanford University - John Ralston. His keen talent evaluation essentially built the strong Broncos teams of the late 1970s.
Even then, I can't advocate hiring a college coach. It pretty much never works out, so let's not go there.
The Rebound
There's a chance the Broncos could hire a recently fired coach. Coaches who could be out at the end of this season include Marvin Lewis of the Bengals, John Fox of the Panthers, Gary Kubiak of the Texans, Eric Mangini of the Browns, Mike Singletary of the 49ers, and Jeff Fisher of the Titans. There is also Leslie Frazier, interim coach of the Vikings, who may or may not become the permanent head coach after the year.
I heard some advocating for Fisher on the radio the other day should he become available. I don't think it's likely or a very good idea - after 16 years as head coach of the Titans, he's got to be burned out to some degree.
Lewis and Singletary haven't exactly had much success in their current jobs, so I don't know what they would have to offer the Broncos. There's probably a less than zero percent chance that the Broncos would hire Mangini, given his genealogy.
John Fox is an intriguing possiblity. His background is on the defensive side of the ball, which is what the Broncos need. And he's had success in Carolina, nearly winning one Super Bowl and getting them to the playoffs in two other seasons.
Leslie Frazier was the supposed runner-up to Josh McDaniels the last time the Broncos were looking for a coach, so he's obviously a strong candidate and another guy with a defensive background.
And of course, Gary Kubiak would be a candidate should he get canned by the Houston Texans, for reasons that will be discussed further below.
The Hot Coordinator
To be perfectly honest, I'm not enough of a football fanatic at this point to really grasp what "assistant coaches on the rise" are out there. But I'm pretty sure the Broncos won't hire anyone who in the past has been affiliated with the New England Patriots.
And at this point, can the Broncos afford to take a chance on a young, unproven coach? They tried this approach last time and it blew up in their face.
The Promotion
Sometimes there's someone already on staff, ready to take the reins. The Broncos used this approach back in 1993 when they promoted Wade Phillips from defensive coordinator to head coach. And out of necessity, they are using it now with interim coach Eric Studesville.
The problem is I don't think the Broncos have anyone currently on staff who is even going to get an interview. Not Ben "Josh's brother" McDaniels. And certainly not defensive coordinator Wink Martindale - not with the way his defense has played this year. I couldn't tell you the names of any other Broncos assistants without looking them up.
Blast from the Past
The Redskins used this approach a few years ago when they rehired Joe Gibbs for a second tour of duty. Only Joe failed to recreate the Super Bowl magic. And CU pondered bringing back Bill McCartney a decade and a half after he stepped down as their coach.
Dan Reeves? Would the Broncos consider bringing back Dan Reeves? He's been out of coaching for a few years, but he's still only 66 years old. This probably would not happen, since it sounds like his archnemesis John Elway is going to be working in the front office.
The Family
I believe this is the approach the Broncos need to help. They've used it a couple of times with great success. In 1977, they hired Red Miller, who had been a Broncos assistant in the sixties, and he led them to Super Bowl XII. And then of course, in 1995, they brought Mike Shanahan back after he had a brief hiatus as the 49ers offensive coordinator.
Who's out there as a former Bronco assistant? There's Mike Nolan, who was an assistant under Dan Reeves and was the defensive coordinator under Josh McDaniels last year until they could no longer get along. He was the head coach of the 49ers for a few years and is currently the defensive coordinator of the Dolphins. Would he consider coming back to Denver a third time?
Chan Gailey was a Broncos assistant back in the eighties - but he's now coach of the Buffalo Bills, who seem to be rapidly improving.
There's Wade Phillips, but he's already had a turn.
Mike Heimerdinger was an assistant under Shanahan and is currently the offensive coordinator of the Tennessee Titans.
And of course, there's the aforementioned Gary Kubiak. But he's still employed currently as the head coach of the Texans. So he won't be available unless the Texans decide to fire him.
But what about Rick Dennison, who is currently Kubiak's offensive coordinator in Houston? You would be hard pressed to find a more credentialed Coloradan than Dennison to coach the Broncos. He attended Rocky Mountain High School in Fort Collins. Played football at CSU. He played for the Broncos in the eighties and was a longtime assistant coach under Shanahan coaching special teams and the offensive line before becoming the offensive coordinator in 2006 after Kubiak left for Houston. He was coaching in Denver as recently as last season under McDaniels, although he was demoted due to the all-encompassing offensive knowledge of his boss.
In conclusion, I think if the Texans make a change at coach, the Broncos should pursue Kubiak and Dennison as head coach and offensive coordinator. If Kubiak stays, I think the Broncos should pursue Dennison as head coach. Both of those guys know Denver, know the Broncos, know the fans, know Pat Bowlen, know John Elway. They can put things back the way they should be. And I think they should call up Wade Phillips and say, "Look, Wade, you're not getting another head coaching job. Come back to Denver and rebuild the defense, and we will promise to spend 90% of our draft picks on your side of the ball." And see what he says.
Wednesday, December 22, 2010
Friday, December 17, 2010
Repeating History
We have heard throughout our lives that those who don't learn history are doomed to repeat it.
So who didn't learn history? Mike Shanahan.
Back in 1991, John Elway and the Broncos rebounded from a bad 1990 season and compiled a 12-4 regular season record. In their first playoff game, Elway engineered "The Drive II" to beat the Houston Oilers. Then the Broncos narrowly missed clinching their fourth Super Bowl appearance in six years, losing to Buffalo 10-7 in the AFC Championship game.
The outlook for 1992 must have seemed pretty good - two or three shrewd player transactions, and the Broncos would be right in the mix for the Super Bowl again. However, in the first round of the draft, Dan Reeves selected a quarterback, Tommy Maddox, to groom as Elway's successor. Never mind the fact that Elway was only 31 years old at the time and would go on to play 7 more NFL seasons. Reeves and Elway didn't like each other, and Reeves basically came out and shouted it from the rooftops. Elway didn't have his best season in 1991, but any outsider could see that quarterback was the one position where the Broncos were SET. So instead of making a pick to help shore up the defense or give Elway another offensive weapon, Reeves drafts his replacement.
And we all know how that story ended. The Broncos went into a mini-tailspin, missing the playoffs three out of the next four years, and losing their only playoff game in that stretch. Reeves was fired following the 1992 season. Maddox played just two seasons in Denver. Fortunately for Denver, Mike Shanahan revived the Broncos and Elway led the team back to the Super Bowl in 1997 and 1998.
But Shanahan did not learn from Reeves' mistake. In 2005, the Broncos rebounded from disappointing finishes to the 2003 and 2004 seasons to post a 13-3 regular season record and their first AFC West title in seven years. They were led by QB Jake Plummer, who had the best year of his career, compliling a passer rating of 90.2 and throwing 18 touchdowns against just 7 interceptions. Plummer was frequently mentioned as an MVP candidate during the season. The Broncos defeated the two-time defending champion New England Patriots in the playoffs and advanced to the AFC Championship game against the Pittsburgh Steelers. They lost to the Steelers, but the Broncos were finally Super Bowl contenders again.
In the 2006 NFL draft, Shanahan made numerous trades to move the Broncos up in the first round, where he selected Jay Cutler, a quarterback from Vanderbilt. People were excited about the pick, because everyone gets excited about quarterbacks. But was Jake Plummer not coming off his best season? And did he not lead the Broncos to the playoffs in each of his three seasons as the Broncos quarterback? Yes and yes. Yet Mike Shanahan drafted his replacement. Like Elway, Plummer was just 31 years old.
Plummer didn't play as well in 2006, and having Cutler looking over his shoulder probably contributed to that. He likely would have led the Broncos to a fourth consecutive playoff appearance, but was removed from the starting job with a 7-4 record and replaced by Cutler and his Elway-like arm. The Broncos went 2-3 the rest of the way with Cutler as the starter, and missed the playoffs.
How did that story end? Mike Shanahan was fired following the 2008 season. Jay Cutler was traded shortly thereafter. Jake Plummer decided to retire following the 2006 season and never played again. The Broncos record is 28-38 since Plummer was removed as the starter. This time there may not be a Shanahan waiting to restore them to glory.
People are wondering went wrong with the Broncos, who are perhaps the worst team in the NFL in 2010. I point to whenever it was - sometime between February and April of 2006 - that Shanahan decided that Plummer's best wasn't good enough. The franchise has been slowly eroding ever since that moment. And the current situation likely could have been avoided if Shanahan had learned from the mistake made by Dan Reeves 14 years earlier and put aside his differences with Jake Plummer and made moves to help him, rather than ruin his career.
So who didn't learn history? Mike Shanahan.
Back in 1991, John Elway and the Broncos rebounded from a bad 1990 season and compiled a 12-4 regular season record. In their first playoff game, Elway engineered "The Drive II" to beat the Houston Oilers. Then the Broncos narrowly missed clinching their fourth Super Bowl appearance in six years, losing to Buffalo 10-7 in the AFC Championship game.
The outlook for 1992 must have seemed pretty good - two or three shrewd player transactions, and the Broncos would be right in the mix for the Super Bowl again. However, in the first round of the draft, Dan Reeves selected a quarterback, Tommy Maddox, to groom as Elway's successor. Never mind the fact that Elway was only 31 years old at the time and would go on to play 7 more NFL seasons. Reeves and Elway didn't like each other, and Reeves basically came out and shouted it from the rooftops. Elway didn't have his best season in 1991, but any outsider could see that quarterback was the one position where the Broncos were SET. So instead of making a pick to help shore up the defense or give Elway another offensive weapon, Reeves drafts his replacement.
And we all know how that story ended. The Broncos went into a mini-tailspin, missing the playoffs three out of the next four years, and losing their only playoff game in that stretch. Reeves was fired following the 1992 season. Maddox played just two seasons in Denver. Fortunately for Denver, Mike Shanahan revived the Broncos and Elway led the team back to the Super Bowl in 1997 and 1998.
But Shanahan did not learn from Reeves' mistake. In 2005, the Broncos rebounded from disappointing finishes to the 2003 and 2004 seasons to post a 13-3 regular season record and their first AFC West title in seven years. They were led by QB Jake Plummer, who had the best year of his career, compliling a passer rating of 90.2 and throwing 18 touchdowns against just 7 interceptions. Plummer was frequently mentioned as an MVP candidate during the season. The Broncos defeated the two-time defending champion New England Patriots in the playoffs and advanced to the AFC Championship game against the Pittsburgh Steelers. They lost to the Steelers, but the Broncos were finally Super Bowl contenders again.
In the 2006 NFL draft, Shanahan made numerous trades to move the Broncos up in the first round, where he selected Jay Cutler, a quarterback from Vanderbilt. People were excited about the pick, because everyone gets excited about quarterbacks. But was Jake Plummer not coming off his best season? And did he not lead the Broncos to the playoffs in each of his three seasons as the Broncos quarterback? Yes and yes. Yet Mike Shanahan drafted his replacement. Like Elway, Plummer was just 31 years old.
Plummer didn't play as well in 2006, and having Cutler looking over his shoulder probably contributed to that. He likely would have led the Broncos to a fourth consecutive playoff appearance, but was removed from the starting job with a 7-4 record and replaced by Cutler and his Elway-like arm. The Broncos went 2-3 the rest of the way with Cutler as the starter, and missed the playoffs.
How did that story end? Mike Shanahan was fired following the 2008 season. Jay Cutler was traded shortly thereafter. Jake Plummer decided to retire following the 2006 season and never played again. The Broncos record is 28-38 since Plummer was removed as the starter. This time there may not be a Shanahan waiting to restore them to glory.
People are wondering went wrong with the Broncos, who are perhaps the worst team in the NFL in 2010. I point to whenever it was - sometime between February and April of 2006 - that Shanahan decided that Plummer's best wasn't good enough. The franchise has been slowly eroding ever since that moment. And the current situation likely could have been avoided if Shanahan had learned from the mistake made by Dan Reeves 14 years earlier and put aside his differences with Jake Plummer and made moves to help him, rather than ruin his career.
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