11. Jerome Bettis. This is his first year of eligibility. Nothing about Jerome Bettis screams "First Ballot Hall of Famer" to me. The good news is, he will get in eventually. If for no other reason than he played for the Pittsburgh Steelers and went out of the game Elway-style, as the last game of his career was a Super Bowl 40 victory. Also, he's number five on the All-time rushing list. On the other hand, Floyd Little retired as the seventh All-time leading rusher and it took 35 years to get him in the Hall of Fame.
8. (tie) Richard Dent, Chris Doleman, and Charles Haley. I debated for some time about which of these pass rushers was most Hall-worthy. Doleman played 15 seasons, compiled 150.5 quarterback sacks, made 8 Pro Bowls, and was twice named 1st Team All-Pro. Haley played 14 seasons, has 100.5 sacks to his credit, was selected to 5 Pro Bowls, and was also twice named 1st Team All-Pro. And when you add his two Super Bowl rings, he pretty much had an equal career to Doleman. And then there's Richard Dent. 15 seasons, 137.5 sacks, two Super Bowl rings, 4 Pro Bowls, 1 All-Pro.
So that's three pretty comparable guys, and I can't really put one ahead of the other. I imagine Hall voters have the same problem. I think it's clear that Richard Dent will be the first one of these three to get in - this is his 7th time as a finalist. The fact that he was MVP of Super Bowl 20 probably puts him slightly ahead of the others.
What finally convinced me that none of them should go in right now is that they failed the Neil Smith Test. Neil Smith was a contemporary of the aforementioned defenders who played 13 seasons, primarily with the Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos. He had 104.5 career sacks, made 7 Pro Bowls and one 1st-Team All-Pro. Plus he won two Super Bowl rings with the Denver Broncos. You can't tell me that Doleman, Dent, or Haley are clearly better candidates than Smith. Yet you never hear of Neil Smith getting a sniff at the Hall of Fame. It doesn't make sense to me.
As a result, I had to say no to all three. If your career was basically the same as a guy who doesn't get mentioned, then I think that seriously weakens your case.
So if I was forced to rank the three, I think it would go like this:
10. Charles Haley
9. Chris Doleman
8. Richard Dent
But I'm not forced to do anything, because it's my blog. So they remain tied.
Saturday, January 29, 2011
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
Pro Football Hall of Fame 2011 Breakdown Part 1 of 3
I've always wanted to break down my thoughts on the vote for the Pro Football Hall of Fame, which takes place the day before the Super Bowl. However, this vote coincides with the time of year when I'm really starting to get busy at work, so I don't have much time for writing such a piece.
This year, I made time. For you.
You're welcome.
There are 15 finalists. Ultimately, 5 will be chosen to be inducted this coming summer in Canton, Ohio. In this series of posts, I will rank these candidates from 15 to 1 according to my book. In this post, I will cut the first four. In my next post, I will cut another four. In the final post, I will give you my top seven, along with the five who I feel should be chosen. And then we'll have the fun of finding out on February 5th how closely my thoughts align with those of the Hall voters.
Let's begin.
15. Ed Sabol. The only non-player on the list, the founder of NFL Films looks like a strong sentimental choice this year. I don't think players and non-players should be on the same ballot. I think they should choose 5 former players, and 1 former non-player. No more Ralph Wilson edging out Shannon Sharpe, which happened last year. Sorry, Ed.
14. Tim Brown. The former WR spent most of his 17 seasons with the Raiders. He put up some good numbers by hanging around so long, and was selected to 9 Pro Bowls. He was consistent, catching at least 75 passes every year from 1993 through 2002, but he was never selected AP 1st Team All-Pro. And as the voters love to remind people, it's the Hall of Fame, not the Hall of Very Good.
13. Curtis Martin. The argument against this former Jet and Patriot RB is the same as the one given above. He was consistent - enjoyed 10 straight seasons of 1,000 yards rushing. But he was never great. Only one AP 1st Team All-Pro. No Super Bowl rings. Plus he fails the name recognition test. It just doesn't seem like Curtis Martin belongs in company with Barry Sanders, Walter Payton, and Eric Dickerson. He'll eventually get in, because somehow he wound up as the fourth All-time leading rusher in history. And he spent most of his career in New York.
12. Andre Reed. The former Buffalo Bills WR is a fifth-time finalist this year. He probably deserves to get in at some point, with 951 career receptions. But again, although he was selected to seven Pro Bowls, he was never selected AP 1st Team All-Pro. He did play in four Super Bowls, but the Bills lost them all. Sorry, Andre, but I have to let you go.
In case you haven't noticed, I really like AP 1st Team All-Pro selections as a measuring stick.
The number of Pro Bowls is often cited, but it is kind of a distorted statistic. Because no one actually wants to play in the Pro Bowl, this is how it usually goes. They name the Pro Bowlers, then after half the team elects not to go, they name a bunch of alternates. And there are separate teams for the AFC and the NFC. So the actual Pro Bowl selection list becomes a bit bloated. In one year I looked at, there were 8 Pro Bowl quarterbacks. That's 25 percent of the league's starting quarterbacks! It's hardly a measurement of the truly elite.
With the AP 1st Team All-Pro designation, you know that the player was either THE BEST at his position or ONE OF THE TWO BEST at his position. And it includes the entire NFL - no separation of NFC and AFC.
So check back soon as I make the cut from 11 to 7.
This year, I made time. For you.
You're welcome.
There are 15 finalists. Ultimately, 5 will be chosen to be inducted this coming summer in Canton, Ohio. In this series of posts, I will rank these candidates from 15 to 1 according to my book. In this post, I will cut the first four. In my next post, I will cut another four. In the final post, I will give you my top seven, along with the five who I feel should be chosen. And then we'll have the fun of finding out on February 5th how closely my thoughts align with those of the Hall voters.
Let's begin.
15. Ed Sabol. The only non-player on the list, the founder of NFL Films looks like a strong sentimental choice this year. I don't think players and non-players should be on the same ballot. I think they should choose 5 former players, and 1 former non-player. No more Ralph Wilson edging out Shannon Sharpe, which happened last year. Sorry, Ed.
14. Tim Brown. The former WR spent most of his 17 seasons with the Raiders. He put up some good numbers by hanging around so long, and was selected to 9 Pro Bowls. He was consistent, catching at least 75 passes every year from 1993 through 2002, but he was never selected AP 1st Team All-Pro. And as the voters love to remind people, it's the Hall of Fame, not the Hall of Very Good.
13. Curtis Martin. The argument against this former Jet and Patriot RB is the same as the one given above. He was consistent - enjoyed 10 straight seasons of 1,000 yards rushing. But he was never great. Only one AP 1st Team All-Pro. No Super Bowl rings. Plus he fails the name recognition test. It just doesn't seem like Curtis Martin belongs in company with Barry Sanders, Walter Payton, and Eric Dickerson. He'll eventually get in, because somehow he wound up as the fourth All-time leading rusher in history. And he spent most of his career in New York.
12. Andre Reed. The former Buffalo Bills WR is a fifth-time finalist this year. He probably deserves to get in at some point, with 951 career receptions. But again, although he was selected to seven Pro Bowls, he was never selected AP 1st Team All-Pro. He did play in four Super Bowls, but the Bills lost them all. Sorry, Andre, but I have to let you go.
In case you haven't noticed, I really like AP 1st Team All-Pro selections as a measuring stick.
The number of Pro Bowls is often cited, but it is kind of a distorted statistic. Because no one actually wants to play in the Pro Bowl, this is how it usually goes. They name the Pro Bowlers, then after half the team elects not to go, they name a bunch of alternates. And there are separate teams for the AFC and the NFC. So the actual Pro Bowl selection list becomes a bit bloated. In one year I looked at, there were 8 Pro Bowl quarterbacks. That's 25 percent of the league's starting quarterbacks! It's hardly a measurement of the truly elite.
With the AP 1st Team All-Pro designation, you know that the player was either THE BEST at his position or ONE OF THE TWO BEST at his position. And it includes the entire NFL - no separation of NFC and AFC.
So check back soon as I make the cut from 11 to 7.
Sunday, January 16, 2011
Sometimes I Read Books Too
There are people who read a lot. I'm not one of those people. I read a couple of books a year, wheras some people read a couple of books a month. Maybe that makes me lame. Maybe it doesn't. I don't know. I probably would read more if I wasn't so disappointed by the things I read.
I finally caved and read the first book in J.K. Rowling's beloved Harry Potter series, Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone. Maybe you've heard of it? The writing was good enough. But reading this book was a bit of a chore for me. I couldn't wait to be done so I didn't have to be always thinking, "oh, yeah, I need to finish that Potter book." And since I've finished, I haven't had any desire to read the next one. Now if you are sitting there thinking, "Wait a minute - I LOVE Harry Potter," know this - it's not you, it's me. I've never really been into the whole wizards and warlocks and fantasy-type stuff. It just doesn't interest me that much. The things that bothered me the most were that the wizards would just cast a spell to make their fine banquets appear. That just seemed entirely too easy - I don't think they should be able to do that. Also, that Dumbledore cat was entirely too random in how he handed out points to the various halls as they competed for the Wizard Cup or whatever that Hogwarts championship was called. Maybe it's the accountant in me, but you've got to have some sort of basis for how you're allocating points. I kind of feel like those Slytherin guys were robbed, even if they were butts.
The other book chronicled the history of the famous California-based restaurant chain In-N-Out Burger. This book was really boring at first as it delved into the genealogy of Harry & Esther Snyder. I skipped at least one chapter. It became more interesting as they talked about its humble beginnings and how the rise of fast food coincided with the explosion of the automobile and suburbs in the 1950s. Harry Snyder focused on quality food and treating employees right. He never borrowed money - only building a new store when he had enough cash saved. And they didn't sell out through franchising like so many of his contemporaries did - McDonald's, Taco Bell, Kentucky Fried Chicken. He wanted to retain control over his product and sacrificed the big payday.
Through the years, In-N-Out achieved cult-like status among burger fans in California. It was only after Harry Snyder turned over the reins to his son that the company really started to grow. The middle part of the book was probably the most interesting as it described a series of plot twists that seem like something out of a Hollywood screenplay.
It seemed like the story was headed for a grand climax, with plenty of family intrigue and legal battles. But it ended up with some sort of confidential settlement, so the reader never finds out exactly how the conflict was resolved. Kind of a bummer. I did get lots of material for a potential future post about the pitfalls of a family business - very interesting topic.
So those are pretty much the two books I read in 2010. Maybe I could step it up to three for 2011.
I finally caved and read the first book in J.K. Rowling's beloved Harry Potter series, Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone. Maybe you've heard of it? The writing was good enough. But reading this book was a bit of a chore for me. I couldn't wait to be done so I didn't have to be always thinking, "oh, yeah, I need to finish that Potter book." And since I've finished, I haven't had any desire to read the next one. Now if you are sitting there thinking, "Wait a minute - I LOVE Harry Potter," know this - it's not you, it's me. I've never really been into the whole wizards and warlocks and fantasy-type stuff. It just doesn't interest me that much. The things that bothered me the most were that the wizards would just cast a spell to make their fine banquets appear. That just seemed entirely too easy - I don't think they should be able to do that. Also, that Dumbledore cat was entirely too random in how he handed out points to the various halls as they competed for the Wizard Cup or whatever that Hogwarts championship was called. Maybe it's the accountant in me, but you've got to have some sort of basis for how you're allocating points. I kind of feel like those Slytherin guys were robbed, even if they were butts.
The other book chronicled the history of the famous California-based restaurant chain In-N-Out Burger. This book was really boring at first as it delved into the genealogy of Harry & Esther Snyder. I skipped at least one chapter. It became more interesting as they talked about its humble beginnings and how the rise of fast food coincided with the explosion of the automobile and suburbs in the 1950s. Harry Snyder focused on quality food and treating employees right. He never borrowed money - only building a new store when he had enough cash saved. And they didn't sell out through franchising like so many of his contemporaries did - McDonald's, Taco Bell, Kentucky Fried Chicken. He wanted to retain control over his product and sacrificed the big payday.Through the years, In-N-Out achieved cult-like status among burger fans in California. It was only after Harry Snyder turned over the reins to his son that the company really started to grow. The middle part of the book was probably the most interesting as it described a series of plot twists that seem like something out of a Hollywood screenplay.
It seemed like the story was headed for a grand climax, with plenty of family intrigue and legal battles. But it ended up with some sort of confidential settlement, so the reader never finds out exactly how the conflict was resolved. Kind of a bummer. I did get lots of material for a potential future post about the pitfalls of a family business - very interesting topic.
So those are pretty much the two books I read in 2010. Maybe I could step it up to three for 2011.
Friday, January 7, 2011
The Cat Could Draft
As John Elway takes the reins of the Denver Broncos once again, here's hoping he follows in the footsteps of another man who came from Stanford University to the Broncos. John Ralston was hired away from the college game back in 1972, when the Broncos were almost in as bad of shape as they are right now. The Broncos were in the Super Bowl six years later. Granted, Ralston had been fired as head coach by then, but he shares quite a bit of responsiblity for building the team that went 40-22, made three playoff appearances, won two AFC West titles, and played in a Super Bowl during Red Miller's stint as head coach from 1977-1980.
Let's quickly review the Broncos drafts from 1972 to 1976.
1972
Drafted TE Riley Odoms in the first round. Odoms went on to play 12 seasons with the Broncos. He was a four-time Pro Bowler, and was twice selected First Team All-Pro. Today he is still ranked sixth in team history in receptions and tied for eighth in touchdowns with 44.
1973
Drafted RB Otis Armstrong in the first Round. He played eight seasons for the Broncos and is currently fourth on the Broncos' all-time career rushing list. His signature year was 1974, when he led the NFL in rushing and was named First Team All-Pro.
Drafted DE Barney Chavous in the second round. He was a starter for all 13 of his seasons with the Broncos. Sacks were not an official stat for a large portion of his career. However, the Broncos estimate he had 75 career sacks, which would be good enough for third on the Broncos' all-time list.
Drafted G Paul Howard in the third round. He played 13 seasons and was a starter for 10 of them. In addition to starting on the 1977 Super Bowl team, he also started during the Broncos' 1986 Super Bowl season.
Drafted LB Tom Jackson in the fourth round. He played 14 seasons. Like Howard, he started for the 1986 Super Bowl team as well as the 1977 team. He was selected to three Pro Bowls, made First Team All-Pro in 1977, and is a member of the Broncos' Ring of Fame.
1974
Drafted LB Randy Gradishar in the first round. He played 10 seasons, made seven Pro Bowls, was twice selected First Team All-Pro, and was the NFL Defensive Player of the Year in 1978. He is also a member of the Broncos' Ring of Fame, and was a Pro Football Hall of Fame finalist or semifinalist every year from 2003 to 2008, although he was never selected due to East Coast bias.
Drafted T Claudie Minor in the thirdd Round. He was a nine-year starter for the Broncos.
1975
Drafted CB Louis Wright in the first round. He played 12 seasons for the Broncos, started for both the 1977 and 1986 Super Bowl teams, was a five-time Pro Bowl pick, was twice voted First Team All-Pro. He is also a member of the Broncos' Ring of Fame.
Drafted WR Rick Upchurch in the fourth Round. He made his name as a dangerous punt returner - his 8 career punt returns for touchdowns remain a team record. During his nine-year career, he was selected to four Pro Bowls and was three times First Team All-Pro.
Drafted DT Rubin Carter in the fifth round. He played 12 seasons for the Broncos and was a starter for 10 of them.
Drafted DB Steve Foley in the eighth round. He was a quarterback in college, but converted to defense and played 11 seasons for the Broncos, including both the 1977 and 1986 Super Bowl teams. He holds the Broncos career record for most interceptions with 44.
1976
Drafted G Tom Glassic in the first round. He played eight seasons and was a starter for seven.
So there you have it. Twelve players. All played a significant role on the 1977 Super Bowl team. Six of them were members of the Broncos' famous Orange Crush defense. Four of them stuck around long enough to play on the 1986 Super Bowl team as well. There are a total of 25 Pro Bowls in this group, and 11 First Team All-Pro Selections. Additionally, all of these men played their entire careers for the Denver Broncos.
That's how you draft, my friend.
I understand that times are different now with free agency and everything. It's pretty rare for players to spend their entire career with one franchise. But it's still true that to build a team that is going to be a winner for a long time, you have to be excellent in the draft. And the Broncos haven't been for many, many years. Which is how they wound up in their current predicament.
There isn't another five-year period of drafts in Broncos history like 1972-1976. The only one I could come up with that even compares is 1980-1984, when the Broncos drafted Rulon Jones, Mike Harden, Keith Bishop, Dennis Smith, Ken Lanier, Sammy Winder, Gary Kubiak, Karl Mecklenburg, Clarence Kay, and of course, John Elway (who wasn't technically a Broncos draft pick, but he kind of was). That group accounts for 27 Pro Bowls, three members of the Broncos' Ring of Fame, and a Hall of Famer.
Anyways, my point is that the Broncos won 7 AFC West titles, played in the Super Bowl four times (and narrowly missed a fifth) between 1977 and 1991. Even though they did win the Super Bowls in 1997 and 1998, they haven't been as consistently good since then. Did you know the Broncos have won only three AFC West titles since 1992? Just three.
As the Broncos clean house organizationally, I hope they realize that only one thing will make them consistent winners again. Nailing the draft year after year. There can be no more Marcus Nash, no more Willie Middlebrooks, no more Jarvis Moss.
Let's quickly review the Broncos drafts from 1972 to 1976.
1972
Drafted TE Riley Odoms in the first round. Odoms went on to play 12 seasons with the Broncos. He was a four-time Pro Bowler, and was twice selected First Team All-Pro. Today he is still ranked sixth in team history in receptions and tied for eighth in touchdowns with 44.
1973
Drafted RB Otis Armstrong in the first Round. He played eight seasons for the Broncos and is currently fourth on the Broncos' all-time career rushing list. His signature year was 1974, when he led the NFL in rushing and was named First Team All-Pro.
Drafted DE Barney Chavous in the second round. He was a starter for all 13 of his seasons with the Broncos. Sacks were not an official stat for a large portion of his career. However, the Broncos estimate he had 75 career sacks, which would be good enough for third on the Broncos' all-time list.
Drafted G Paul Howard in the third round. He played 13 seasons and was a starter for 10 of them. In addition to starting on the 1977 Super Bowl team, he also started during the Broncos' 1986 Super Bowl season.
Drafted LB Tom Jackson in the fourth round. He played 14 seasons. Like Howard, he started for the 1986 Super Bowl team as well as the 1977 team. He was selected to three Pro Bowls, made First Team All-Pro in 1977, and is a member of the Broncos' Ring of Fame.
1974
Drafted LB Randy Gradishar in the first round. He played 10 seasons, made seven Pro Bowls, was twice selected First Team All-Pro, and was the NFL Defensive Player of the Year in 1978. He is also a member of the Broncos' Ring of Fame, and was a Pro Football Hall of Fame finalist or semifinalist every year from 2003 to 2008, although he was never selected due to East Coast bias.
Drafted T Claudie Minor in the thirdd Round. He was a nine-year starter for the Broncos.
1975
Drafted CB Louis Wright in the first round. He played 12 seasons for the Broncos, started for both the 1977 and 1986 Super Bowl teams, was a five-time Pro Bowl pick, was twice voted First Team All-Pro. He is also a member of the Broncos' Ring of Fame.
Drafted WR Rick Upchurch in the fourth Round. He made his name as a dangerous punt returner - his 8 career punt returns for touchdowns remain a team record. During his nine-year career, he was selected to four Pro Bowls and was three times First Team All-Pro.
Drafted DT Rubin Carter in the fifth round. He played 12 seasons for the Broncos and was a starter for 10 of them.
Drafted DB Steve Foley in the eighth round. He was a quarterback in college, but converted to defense and played 11 seasons for the Broncos, including both the 1977 and 1986 Super Bowl teams. He holds the Broncos career record for most interceptions with 44.
1976
Drafted G Tom Glassic in the first round. He played eight seasons and was a starter for seven.
So there you have it. Twelve players. All played a significant role on the 1977 Super Bowl team. Six of them were members of the Broncos' famous Orange Crush defense. Four of them stuck around long enough to play on the 1986 Super Bowl team as well. There are a total of 25 Pro Bowls in this group, and 11 First Team All-Pro Selections. Additionally, all of these men played their entire careers for the Denver Broncos.
That's how you draft, my friend.
I understand that times are different now with free agency and everything. It's pretty rare for players to spend their entire career with one franchise. But it's still true that to build a team that is going to be a winner for a long time, you have to be excellent in the draft. And the Broncos haven't been for many, many years. Which is how they wound up in their current predicament.
There isn't another five-year period of drafts in Broncos history like 1972-1976. The only one I could come up with that even compares is 1980-1984, when the Broncos drafted Rulon Jones, Mike Harden, Keith Bishop, Dennis Smith, Ken Lanier, Sammy Winder, Gary Kubiak, Karl Mecklenburg, Clarence Kay, and of course, John Elway (who wasn't technically a Broncos draft pick, but he kind of was). That group accounts for 27 Pro Bowls, three members of the Broncos' Ring of Fame, and a Hall of Famer.
Anyways, my point is that the Broncos won 7 AFC West titles, played in the Super Bowl four times (and narrowly missed a fifth) between 1977 and 1991. Even though they did win the Super Bowls in 1997 and 1998, they haven't been as consistently good since then. Did you know the Broncos have won only three AFC West titles since 1992? Just three.
As the Broncos clean house organizationally, I hope they realize that only one thing will make them consistent winners again. Nailing the draft year after year. There can be no more Marcus Nash, no more Willie Middlebrooks, no more Jarvis Moss.
Saturday, January 1, 2011
Football Nostalgia
For Christmas I received the DVD set Denver Broncos Greatest Games. The set is pretty limited, including only three games - 1977 AFC Championship Game, Super Bowl 32, and Super Bowl 33. I'm not sure how the 1986 AFC Championship Game aka "The Drive" or the 1987 AFC Championship Game aka "The Fumble" aren't also included, but whatever.
I'm a card carrying Broncos fan, yet this was my first time seeing the 1977 game between the Raiders and Broncos, because I was two years old at the time. I enjoyed watching the game even though I obviously already knew the result.
I guess the Rob Lytle fumble was controversial. I don't think the call necessarily lost the game for the Raiders or won it for the Broncos. Oh, if they only had challenge flags and replay booth officials back then. . . NOT.
I kind of miss the NFL of that era before money and politics and five ESPN channels running around the clock. I miss the crappy graphics on the broadcast where you can watch an entire quarter without them ever showing the score or the game clock. That's actually kind of frustrating. But I miss having just football on the screen - not a scroll on the bottom, the game clock/score/down and distance permantently stampted at the top, along the with the network logo in the bottom, and a dozen different electronically generated lines on the field.
I miss Dick Enberg. That guy said stuff wrong even back when he was young. At one point, he stated that his broadcast partner Len Dawson was quarterbacking the Raiders.
I noticed a distinct lack of showboating in this game. If a defensive lineman dropped the quarterback for a sack, he usually then offered a hand to help the QB up instead of the whole dancing/gyrating/flexing thing we see today.
Anyways, I think the Broncos owe that win to Haven Moses, which I never realized. Number 25 was sensational in that game. Five catches, 168 yards, two touchdowns. Also Craig Morton, who obviously threw the passes that Moses caught.
I'm not really understanding Jim Turner in the Ring of Fame. He missed three field goals in that game, plus the Broncos messed up the snap on an extra point. Lonnie Perrin, a backup running back, did the kickoffs. They're lucky the kicking game didn't cost them the game.
But I kind of miss crappy kicking games, back before teams were keeping one guy on their roster specifically to do long snapping, and before kickers were practically automatic.
I need to get me some more vintage NFL action.
I'm a card carrying Broncos fan, yet this was my first time seeing the 1977 game between the Raiders and Broncos, because I was two years old at the time. I enjoyed watching the game even though I obviously already knew the result.
I guess the Rob Lytle fumble was controversial. I don't think the call necessarily lost the game for the Raiders or won it for the Broncos. Oh, if they only had challenge flags and replay booth officials back then. . . NOT.
I kind of miss the NFL of that era before money and politics and five ESPN channels running around the clock. I miss the crappy graphics on the broadcast where you can watch an entire quarter without them ever showing the score or the game clock. That's actually kind of frustrating. But I miss having just football on the screen - not a scroll on the bottom, the game clock/score/down and distance permantently stampted at the top, along the with the network logo in the bottom, and a dozen different electronically generated lines on the field.
I miss Dick Enberg. That guy said stuff wrong even back when he was young. At one point, he stated that his broadcast partner Len Dawson was quarterbacking the Raiders.
I noticed a distinct lack of showboating in this game. If a defensive lineman dropped the quarterback for a sack, he usually then offered a hand to help the QB up instead of the whole dancing/gyrating/flexing thing we see today.
Anyways, I think the Broncos owe that win to Haven Moses, which I never realized. Number 25 was sensational in that game. Five catches, 168 yards, two touchdowns. Also Craig Morton, who obviously threw the passes that Moses caught.
I'm not really understanding Jim Turner in the Ring of Fame. He missed three field goals in that game, plus the Broncos messed up the snap on an extra point. Lonnie Perrin, a backup running back, did the kickoffs. They're lucky the kicking game didn't cost them the game.
But I kind of miss crappy kicking games, back before teams were keeping one guy on their roster specifically to do long snapping, and before kickers were practically automatic.
I need to get me some more vintage NFL action.
Wednesday, December 22, 2010
Pat Bowlen's Hiring Guide
There are several approaches the Broncos can take to hiring a new head coach. I've taken the liberty of outlining them.
The Big Name
Included in this category are ex-Steelers coach Bill Cowher, ex-Buccaneers coach Jon Gruden, ex-Colts coach Tony Dungy, ex-Ravens coach Brian Billick. All won Super Bowls with their former clubs, all are now working in television, and all have been out of coaching for at least two years. All are rumored as possibilities for every head coaching job that opens up.
A lot of people around here are clamoring for Gruden or Cowher to coach the Broncos. I don't see the Broncos being that interested in any of these candidates and vice versa. Mainly because they would require what Pat Bowlen can't give at this point - a lot of money and a lot of power.
And frankly, I'm glad. The idea of bringing in one of these guys to coach the Broncos reminds me of the move the Colorado Rockies made in 1999 when they brought in Jim Leyland as manager. He lasted one year with poor results as he technically didn't want to be here. Cowher, Gruden, and Dungy are all East Coast guys who probably wouldn't appreciate what is unique about Colorado and the Broncos and would be in it primarily for the money and/or their ego.
It's just as well for fans not to get their hopes up on anyone from this group. If these guys really wanted to be coaching, they already would be.
The College Guy
Names that have already come up from this category are Air Force coach Troy Calhoun, Stanford coach Jim Harbaugh, and former Florida coach Urban Meyer.
Calhoun was the front runner for about a day after McDaniels was fired, as he is a former Broncos assistant, but extended his contract with Air Force, so he's out of the running. Tebowmaniacs have thrown out Urban Meyer's name. The chances of that happening are slim and none.
The name that should be brought up is BYU coach Bronco Mendenhall. For obvious reasons.
I don't know much about the coaching aptitude of Jim Harbaugh, but the last time the Denver Broncos were in as bad shape as they are now was 1971. Back then, they hired their coach away from Stanford University - John Ralston. His keen talent evaluation essentially built the strong Broncos teams of the late 1970s.
Even then, I can't advocate hiring a college coach. It pretty much never works out, so let's not go there.
The Rebound
There's a chance the Broncos could hire a recently fired coach. Coaches who could be out at the end of this season include Marvin Lewis of the Bengals, John Fox of the Panthers, Gary Kubiak of the Texans, Eric Mangini of the Browns, Mike Singletary of the 49ers, and Jeff Fisher of the Titans. There is also Leslie Frazier, interim coach of the Vikings, who may or may not become the permanent head coach after the year.
I heard some advocating for Fisher on the radio the other day should he become available. I don't think it's likely or a very good idea - after 16 years as head coach of the Titans, he's got to be burned out to some degree.
Lewis and Singletary haven't exactly had much success in their current jobs, so I don't know what they would have to offer the Broncos. There's probably a less than zero percent chance that the Broncos would hire Mangini, given his genealogy.
John Fox is an intriguing possiblity. His background is on the defensive side of the ball, which is what the Broncos need. And he's had success in Carolina, nearly winning one Super Bowl and getting them to the playoffs in two other seasons.
Leslie Frazier was the supposed runner-up to Josh McDaniels the last time the Broncos were looking for a coach, so he's obviously a strong candidate and another guy with a defensive background.
And of course, Gary Kubiak would be a candidate should he get canned by the Houston Texans, for reasons that will be discussed further below.
The Hot Coordinator
To be perfectly honest, I'm not enough of a football fanatic at this point to really grasp what "assistant coaches on the rise" are out there. But I'm pretty sure the Broncos won't hire anyone who in the past has been affiliated with the New England Patriots.
And at this point, can the Broncos afford to take a chance on a young, unproven coach? They tried this approach last time and it blew up in their face.
The Promotion
Sometimes there's someone already on staff, ready to take the reins. The Broncos used this approach back in 1993 when they promoted Wade Phillips from defensive coordinator to head coach. And out of necessity, they are using it now with interim coach Eric Studesville.
The problem is I don't think the Broncos have anyone currently on staff who is even going to get an interview. Not Ben "Josh's brother" McDaniels. And certainly not defensive coordinator Wink Martindale - not with the way his defense has played this year. I couldn't tell you the names of any other Broncos assistants without looking them up.
Blast from the Past
The Redskins used this approach a few years ago when they rehired Joe Gibbs for a second tour of duty. Only Joe failed to recreate the Super Bowl magic. And CU pondered bringing back Bill McCartney a decade and a half after he stepped down as their coach.
Dan Reeves? Would the Broncos consider bringing back Dan Reeves? He's been out of coaching for a few years, but he's still only 66 years old. This probably would not happen, since it sounds like his archnemesis John Elway is going to be working in the front office.
The Family
I believe this is the approach the Broncos need to help. They've used it a couple of times with great success. In 1977, they hired Red Miller, who had been a Broncos assistant in the sixties, and he led them to Super Bowl XII. And then of course, in 1995, they brought Mike Shanahan back after he had a brief hiatus as the 49ers offensive coordinator.
Who's out there as a former Bronco assistant? There's Mike Nolan, who was an assistant under Dan Reeves and was the defensive coordinator under Josh McDaniels last year until they could no longer get along. He was the head coach of the 49ers for a few years and is currently the defensive coordinator of the Dolphins. Would he consider coming back to Denver a third time?
Chan Gailey was a Broncos assistant back in the eighties - but he's now coach of the Buffalo Bills, who seem to be rapidly improving.
There's Wade Phillips, but he's already had a turn.
Mike Heimerdinger was an assistant under Shanahan and is currently the offensive coordinator of the Tennessee Titans.
And of course, there's the aforementioned Gary Kubiak. But he's still employed currently as the head coach of the Texans. So he won't be available unless the Texans decide to fire him.
But what about Rick Dennison, who is currently Kubiak's offensive coordinator in Houston? You would be hard pressed to find a more credentialed Coloradan than Dennison to coach the Broncos. He attended Rocky Mountain High School in Fort Collins. Played football at CSU. He played for the Broncos in the eighties and was a longtime assistant coach under Shanahan coaching special teams and the offensive line before becoming the offensive coordinator in 2006 after Kubiak left for Houston. He was coaching in Denver as recently as last season under McDaniels, although he was demoted due to the all-encompassing offensive knowledge of his boss.
In conclusion, I think if the Texans make a change at coach, the Broncos should pursue Kubiak and Dennison as head coach and offensive coordinator. If Kubiak stays, I think the Broncos should pursue Dennison as head coach. Both of those guys know Denver, know the Broncos, know the fans, know Pat Bowlen, know John Elway. They can put things back the way they should be. And I think they should call up Wade Phillips and say, "Look, Wade, you're not getting another head coaching job. Come back to Denver and rebuild the defense, and we will promise to spend 90% of our draft picks on your side of the ball." And see what he says.
The Big Name
Included in this category are ex-Steelers coach Bill Cowher, ex-Buccaneers coach Jon Gruden, ex-Colts coach Tony Dungy, ex-Ravens coach Brian Billick. All won Super Bowls with their former clubs, all are now working in television, and all have been out of coaching for at least two years. All are rumored as possibilities for every head coaching job that opens up.
A lot of people around here are clamoring for Gruden or Cowher to coach the Broncos. I don't see the Broncos being that interested in any of these candidates and vice versa. Mainly because they would require what Pat Bowlen can't give at this point - a lot of money and a lot of power.
And frankly, I'm glad. The idea of bringing in one of these guys to coach the Broncos reminds me of the move the Colorado Rockies made in 1999 when they brought in Jim Leyland as manager. He lasted one year with poor results as he technically didn't want to be here. Cowher, Gruden, and Dungy are all East Coast guys who probably wouldn't appreciate what is unique about Colorado and the Broncos and would be in it primarily for the money and/or their ego.
It's just as well for fans not to get their hopes up on anyone from this group. If these guys really wanted to be coaching, they already would be.
The College Guy
Names that have already come up from this category are Air Force coach Troy Calhoun, Stanford coach Jim Harbaugh, and former Florida coach Urban Meyer.
Calhoun was the front runner for about a day after McDaniels was fired, as he is a former Broncos assistant, but extended his contract with Air Force, so he's out of the running. Tebowmaniacs have thrown out Urban Meyer's name. The chances of that happening are slim and none.
The name that should be brought up is BYU coach Bronco Mendenhall. For obvious reasons.
I don't know much about the coaching aptitude of Jim Harbaugh, but the last time the Denver Broncos were in as bad shape as they are now was 1971. Back then, they hired their coach away from Stanford University - John Ralston. His keen talent evaluation essentially built the strong Broncos teams of the late 1970s.
Even then, I can't advocate hiring a college coach. It pretty much never works out, so let's not go there.
The Rebound
There's a chance the Broncos could hire a recently fired coach. Coaches who could be out at the end of this season include Marvin Lewis of the Bengals, John Fox of the Panthers, Gary Kubiak of the Texans, Eric Mangini of the Browns, Mike Singletary of the 49ers, and Jeff Fisher of the Titans. There is also Leslie Frazier, interim coach of the Vikings, who may or may not become the permanent head coach after the year.
I heard some advocating for Fisher on the radio the other day should he become available. I don't think it's likely or a very good idea - after 16 years as head coach of the Titans, he's got to be burned out to some degree.
Lewis and Singletary haven't exactly had much success in their current jobs, so I don't know what they would have to offer the Broncos. There's probably a less than zero percent chance that the Broncos would hire Mangini, given his genealogy.
John Fox is an intriguing possiblity. His background is on the defensive side of the ball, which is what the Broncos need. And he's had success in Carolina, nearly winning one Super Bowl and getting them to the playoffs in two other seasons.
Leslie Frazier was the supposed runner-up to Josh McDaniels the last time the Broncos were looking for a coach, so he's obviously a strong candidate and another guy with a defensive background.
And of course, Gary Kubiak would be a candidate should he get canned by the Houston Texans, for reasons that will be discussed further below.
The Hot Coordinator
To be perfectly honest, I'm not enough of a football fanatic at this point to really grasp what "assistant coaches on the rise" are out there. But I'm pretty sure the Broncos won't hire anyone who in the past has been affiliated with the New England Patriots.
And at this point, can the Broncos afford to take a chance on a young, unproven coach? They tried this approach last time and it blew up in their face.
The Promotion
Sometimes there's someone already on staff, ready to take the reins. The Broncos used this approach back in 1993 when they promoted Wade Phillips from defensive coordinator to head coach. And out of necessity, they are using it now with interim coach Eric Studesville.
The problem is I don't think the Broncos have anyone currently on staff who is even going to get an interview. Not Ben "Josh's brother" McDaniels. And certainly not defensive coordinator Wink Martindale - not with the way his defense has played this year. I couldn't tell you the names of any other Broncos assistants without looking them up.
Blast from the Past
The Redskins used this approach a few years ago when they rehired Joe Gibbs for a second tour of duty. Only Joe failed to recreate the Super Bowl magic. And CU pondered bringing back Bill McCartney a decade and a half after he stepped down as their coach.
Dan Reeves? Would the Broncos consider bringing back Dan Reeves? He's been out of coaching for a few years, but he's still only 66 years old. This probably would not happen, since it sounds like his archnemesis John Elway is going to be working in the front office.
The Family
I believe this is the approach the Broncos need to help. They've used it a couple of times with great success. In 1977, they hired Red Miller, who had been a Broncos assistant in the sixties, and he led them to Super Bowl XII. And then of course, in 1995, they brought Mike Shanahan back after he had a brief hiatus as the 49ers offensive coordinator.
Who's out there as a former Bronco assistant? There's Mike Nolan, who was an assistant under Dan Reeves and was the defensive coordinator under Josh McDaniels last year until they could no longer get along. He was the head coach of the 49ers for a few years and is currently the defensive coordinator of the Dolphins. Would he consider coming back to Denver a third time?
Chan Gailey was a Broncos assistant back in the eighties - but he's now coach of the Buffalo Bills, who seem to be rapidly improving.
There's Wade Phillips, but he's already had a turn.
Mike Heimerdinger was an assistant under Shanahan and is currently the offensive coordinator of the Tennessee Titans.
And of course, there's the aforementioned Gary Kubiak. But he's still employed currently as the head coach of the Texans. So he won't be available unless the Texans decide to fire him.
But what about Rick Dennison, who is currently Kubiak's offensive coordinator in Houston? You would be hard pressed to find a more credentialed Coloradan than Dennison to coach the Broncos. He attended Rocky Mountain High School in Fort Collins. Played football at CSU. He played for the Broncos in the eighties and was a longtime assistant coach under Shanahan coaching special teams and the offensive line before becoming the offensive coordinator in 2006 after Kubiak left for Houston. He was coaching in Denver as recently as last season under McDaniels, although he was demoted due to the all-encompassing offensive knowledge of his boss.
In conclusion, I think if the Texans make a change at coach, the Broncos should pursue Kubiak and Dennison as head coach and offensive coordinator. If Kubiak stays, I think the Broncos should pursue Dennison as head coach. Both of those guys know Denver, know the Broncos, know the fans, know Pat Bowlen, know John Elway. They can put things back the way they should be. And I think they should call up Wade Phillips and say, "Look, Wade, you're not getting another head coaching job. Come back to Denver and rebuild the defense, and we will promise to spend 90% of our draft picks on your side of the ball." And see what he says.
Friday, December 17, 2010
Repeating History
We have heard throughout our lives that those who don't learn history are doomed to repeat it.
So who didn't learn history? Mike Shanahan.
Back in 1991, John Elway and the Broncos rebounded from a bad 1990 season and compiled a 12-4 regular season record. In their first playoff game, Elway engineered "The Drive II" to beat the Houston Oilers. Then the Broncos narrowly missed clinching their fourth Super Bowl appearance in six years, losing to Buffalo 10-7 in the AFC Championship game.
The outlook for 1992 must have seemed pretty good - two or three shrewd player transactions, and the Broncos would be right in the mix for the Super Bowl again. However, in the first round of the draft, Dan Reeves selected a quarterback, Tommy Maddox, to groom as Elway's successor. Never mind the fact that Elway was only 31 years old at the time and would go on to play 7 more NFL seasons. Reeves and Elway didn't like each other, and Reeves basically came out and shouted it from the rooftops. Elway didn't have his best season in 1991, but any outsider could see that quarterback was the one position where the Broncos were SET. So instead of making a pick to help shore up the defense or give Elway another offensive weapon, Reeves drafts his replacement.
And we all know how that story ended. The Broncos went into a mini-tailspin, missing the playoffs three out of the next four years, and losing their only playoff game in that stretch. Reeves was fired following the 1992 season. Maddox played just two seasons in Denver. Fortunately for Denver, Mike Shanahan revived the Broncos and Elway led the team back to the Super Bowl in 1997 and 1998.
But Shanahan did not learn from Reeves' mistake. In 2005, the Broncos rebounded from disappointing finishes to the 2003 and 2004 seasons to post a 13-3 regular season record and their first AFC West title in seven years. They were led by QB Jake Plummer, who had the best year of his career, compliling a passer rating of 90.2 and throwing 18 touchdowns against just 7 interceptions. Plummer was frequently mentioned as an MVP candidate during the season. The Broncos defeated the two-time defending champion New England Patriots in the playoffs and advanced to the AFC Championship game against the Pittsburgh Steelers. They lost to the Steelers, but the Broncos were finally Super Bowl contenders again.
In the 2006 NFL draft, Shanahan made numerous trades to move the Broncos up in the first round, where he selected Jay Cutler, a quarterback from Vanderbilt. People were excited about the pick, because everyone gets excited about quarterbacks. But was Jake Plummer not coming off his best season? And did he not lead the Broncos to the playoffs in each of his three seasons as the Broncos quarterback? Yes and yes. Yet Mike Shanahan drafted his replacement. Like Elway, Plummer was just 31 years old.
Plummer didn't play as well in 2006, and having Cutler looking over his shoulder probably contributed to that. He likely would have led the Broncos to a fourth consecutive playoff appearance, but was removed from the starting job with a 7-4 record and replaced by Cutler and his Elway-like arm. The Broncos went 2-3 the rest of the way with Cutler as the starter, and missed the playoffs.
How did that story end? Mike Shanahan was fired following the 2008 season. Jay Cutler was traded shortly thereafter. Jake Plummer decided to retire following the 2006 season and never played again. The Broncos record is 28-38 since Plummer was removed as the starter. This time there may not be a Shanahan waiting to restore them to glory.
People are wondering went wrong with the Broncos, who are perhaps the worst team in the NFL in 2010. I point to whenever it was - sometime between February and April of 2006 - that Shanahan decided that Plummer's best wasn't good enough. The franchise has been slowly eroding ever since that moment. And the current situation likely could have been avoided if Shanahan had learned from the mistake made by Dan Reeves 14 years earlier and put aside his differences with Jake Plummer and made moves to help him, rather than ruin his career.
So who didn't learn history? Mike Shanahan.
Back in 1991, John Elway and the Broncos rebounded from a bad 1990 season and compiled a 12-4 regular season record. In their first playoff game, Elway engineered "The Drive II" to beat the Houston Oilers. Then the Broncos narrowly missed clinching their fourth Super Bowl appearance in six years, losing to Buffalo 10-7 in the AFC Championship game.
The outlook for 1992 must have seemed pretty good - two or three shrewd player transactions, and the Broncos would be right in the mix for the Super Bowl again. However, in the first round of the draft, Dan Reeves selected a quarterback, Tommy Maddox, to groom as Elway's successor. Never mind the fact that Elway was only 31 years old at the time and would go on to play 7 more NFL seasons. Reeves and Elway didn't like each other, and Reeves basically came out and shouted it from the rooftops. Elway didn't have his best season in 1991, but any outsider could see that quarterback was the one position where the Broncos were SET. So instead of making a pick to help shore up the defense or give Elway another offensive weapon, Reeves drafts his replacement.
And we all know how that story ended. The Broncos went into a mini-tailspin, missing the playoffs three out of the next four years, and losing their only playoff game in that stretch. Reeves was fired following the 1992 season. Maddox played just two seasons in Denver. Fortunately for Denver, Mike Shanahan revived the Broncos and Elway led the team back to the Super Bowl in 1997 and 1998.
But Shanahan did not learn from Reeves' mistake. In 2005, the Broncos rebounded from disappointing finishes to the 2003 and 2004 seasons to post a 13-3 regular season record and their first AFC West title in seven years. They were led by QB Jake Plummer, who had the best year of his career, compliling a passer rating of 90.2 and throwing 18 touchdowns against just 7 interceptions. Plummer was frequently mentioned as an MVP candidate during the season. The Broncos defeated the two-time defending champion New England Patriots in the playoffs and advanced to the AFC Championship game against the Pittsburgh Steelers. They lost to the Steelers, but the Broncos were finally Super Bowl contenders again.
In the 2006 NFL draft, Shanahan made numerous trades to move the Broncos up in the first round, where he selected Jay Cutler, a quarterback from Vanderbilt. People were excited about the pick, because everyone gets excited about quarterbacks. But was Jake Plummer not coming off his best season? And did he not lead the Broncos to the playoffs in each of his three seasons as the Broncos quarterback? Yes and yes. Yet Mike Shanahan drafted his replacement. Like Elway, Plummer was just 31 years old.
Plummer didn't play as well in 2006, and having Cutler looking over his shoulder probably contributed to that. He likely would have led the Broncos to a fourth consecutive playoff appearance, but was removed from the starting job with a 7-4 record and replaced by Cutler and his Elway-like arm. The Broncos went 2-3 the rest of the way with Cutler as the starter, and missed the playoffs.
How did that story end? Mike Shanahan was fired following the 2008 season. Jay Cutler was traded shortly thereafter. Jake Plummer decided to retire following the 2006 season and never played again. The Broncos record is 28-38 since Plummer was removed as the starter. This time there may not be a Shanahan waiting to restore them to glory.
People are wondering went wrong with the Broncos, who are perhaps the worst team in the NFL in 2010. I point to whenever it was - sometime between February and April of 2006 - that Shanahan decided that Plummer's best wasn't good enough. The franchise has been slowly eroding ever since that moment. And the current situation likely could have been avoided if Shanahan had learned from the mistake made by Dan Reeves 14 years earlier and put aside his differences with Jake Plummer and made moves to help him, rather than ruin his career.
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