Sunday, December 14, 2008

Warning! This Post Will Probably Bore You.

My fantasy football season came to an end Monday night. All I needed was for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and their fabulous defense to hold Carolina Panthers receiver Steve Smith to a modest number of catches. Instead, Smith caught 9 passes for 117 yards and a touchdown, which gave my opponent enough points to beat me. With the loss, my record dropped to 7-7 and I ended up in a tie for the final playoff spot, which I lost due to a tiebreaker of total points throughout the season.

Much like the Denver Broncos, I started off the season like a house of fire. I won my first game by a margin of 34 points. I won my second game by scoring a total of 206 points, which was the highest single-game total in my league this season. And then I squeaked out a victory in game three as Chargers K Nate Kaeding scored 13 points for me in the Monday night game – pretty much exactly what I needed. At 3-0, I had high hopes for the season. But then my team went in the tank, losing 6 of 8 games and leaving me on the bubble for the playoffs. I rebounded with consecutive victories in weeks 12 &13, but then fell short last week.

Where did I go wrong?

I’ve played fantasy football for several seasons – and I pretty much know what to do and what not to do. And yet, in the draft, I didn’t stick to it 100 percent.

For instance, I knew that picking a quarterback anywhere in the first half of the draft was a bad idea. And yet, there I was, picking Carson Palmer in the 5th round. How did that turn out? The Bengals were awful, Palmer was hurt, and he totaled only 91 points of fantasy production. I cut him midseason.

My quarterback for most of the season was Eli Manning (392 points). And where did I pick him up? That’s right – in the 16th round, one of the very last players picked. I would have been better off spending my 5th round pick on another position.

Actually, my initial plan going into the draft was to look for Broncos QB Jay Cutler, since I knew he was a bit underrated. And he was available for me as late as the 10th round. So did I take him? Nope, I passed on Cutler and what would have been a 507-point season in order to take RB Fred Taylor (86 points).

The second place I messed up was in running back depth. Running back is the most valuable fantasy position, especially if you can snag one who gets yards both rushing and receiving. I started off okay, using my first round pick on Marion Barber (223 points) instead of Joseph Addai (127 points). But then I proceeded to ignore the position for the next six rounds.

It was my plan – sort of. I thought receivers were more valuable early in the draft and filled out my three starting positions in rounds 2, 3, and 4 with Reggie Wayne (191 points), Andre Johnson (243 points), and Brandon Marshall (220 points). That was my strategy, and I stuck to it, so I can’t really fault myself. But in the process, I passed up that second running back. I could have picked up Maurice Jones-Drew (228 points), Clinton Portis (212 points), or Reggie Bush (170 points).

Instead of turning my focus back to running back after the 4th round, I picked Palmer in the 5th round and grabbed TE Kellen Winslow in the 6th. In the process, I passed up Atlanta Falcons RB Michael Turner (215 points), who I had my eye on. I didn’t even get the right TE, either. Winslow totaled 103 points this year – the next player selected was Chiefs TE Tony Gonzalez (208 points).

I picked up Calvin Johnson (216) as a fourth receiver in the 7th round, with the idea I could trade one of my four receivers once the bye weeks were done. But that didn't work out.

And so I was left to pick Edgerrin James as my second RB in the 8th round. He was adequate until he inexplicably stopped playing midway through the season and wound up with only 75 points all year. And who was picked next? Jets RB Thomas Jones, who racked up 245 points this year.

I also decided to take a chance on a rookie RB later in the draft in hopes I might find a steal. I took Steelers RB Rashard Mendenhall. He totaled just 10 points before suffering a season-ending injury.

So I struggled with depth at running back all season, using free agent pickups Mewelde Moore, LeRon McClain, and Derrick Ward to cover my draft deficiencies. They did okay, but not having adequate RB depth probably cost me at least two wins this season, including the final week, when Marion Barber was out with an injury and my starting backfield was Ward and Moore.

I can look back at any number of games this past year as the one that cost me the playoffs – maybe in week 8 when I lost by less than a field goal – thanks in part to Edgerrin James and his 0.7 output that week. Or what about in week 10, when I had my second highest single-game point total of the year with 160 points, but still lost. This was partly attributable to my starting Calvin Johnson instead of Brandon Marshall.

So I’ll try again next year and maybe get this fantasy football thing right.

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